In today’s briefing:
- Pullback Begins; How Low Can Indexes Go?; High Yield Spreads & DXY Following Treasury Yields Higher
- US 10yr Yield (USGG10YR): We Have to Focus on the Big Picture (Multi-Year Uptrend)
Pullback Begins; How Low Can Indexes Go?; High Yield Spreads & DXY Following Treasury Yields Higher
- Since January, our expectation for 2023 has been for 4165 (and 4165-4200) to cap upside on the S&P 500.
- We’ve been preaching caution with the indexes testing resistance, and we are now getting confirmation that suggests a pullback has officially begun
- SPX, QQQ, and IWM all demonstrating false breakouts, alongside bullish inflections in Treasury yields, high yield spreads, and the U.S. dollar. Defensives also display bullish RS reversals
US 10yr Yield (USGG10YR): We Have to Focus on the Big Picture (Multi-Year Uptrend)
- At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
- USGG10YR traded in a perfectly structured downtrend from 1981 to 2020. This downtrend was clearly broken in Q2 2022, confirming a dominant multi-year uptrend.
- A mere 38.2% retracement of the 1981/2020 downtrend targets 6.24 in the coming 1-2 years. This is our big picture outlook. February may confirm the next leg in this uptrend.
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