In today’s briefing:
- Fresh Shorts in Our Early August Peak Risk Window
- S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight
Fresh Shorts in Our Early August Peak Risk Window
- In addition to shorting NDX at 13,000+, we saw key reversals in Japan and Taiwan after hitting short entry levels. Germany short is in focus as Europe tops.
- Japan and Taiwan registered key reversals with NKY 27k and Taiwan 14,600 pivots to break.
- Early August peak in the risk cycle ahead of a more brutal September period.
S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight
- In last week’s Compass (July 26) we discussed positive signals that we believe suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
- We continue to see more evidence that supports this claim; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
- The SPX is reversing topside its 4-month downtrend, and the Russell 2000 (IWM), Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), and Russell 2000Growth (IWO) are each reversing topside their 9-month downtrends; the bottom’s in.
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