In today’s briefing:
- Buy This Give Back
- HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC
Buy This Give Back
- US equities give back post PPI is a buying opportunity within our Q4 bull framework. The conviction trade is to sell USD upticks with lower yields in store into December.
- Sell the USD into Dec which supports turn around plays in Asia. DXY 103 is our bull support to stage a fresh rise. How will yields respond?
- SPX 3,850 buy support with 4,100/200 the Q4 target to top build ahead of a fresh Q1 bear cycle. Summer bounce similarities.
HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC
- The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.
- What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.
- The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.
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