In today’s briefing:
- Asia Macro Chart Trajectory
- Can AI Stocks Lead the Market to a New Bull?
Asia Macro Chart Trajectory
- Macro charts for US 10yr yield, Nikkei (bull), Kospi 200 (bear), HSI (bear) and Nifty (bull) featured. Taiwan falls into the bull camp.
- Cycle: Bullish above SPX 4,200 (rally failure if back below this pivot level). NDX trendline buy support at 13,950. Risk that tech is stretched near term.
- Asia is well positioned for gains once we get through some overbought readings. HK and Korea the weak links.
Can AI Stocks Lead the Market to a New Bull?
- Can the AI frenzy, which appears to be in its early stages, carry the stock market to a new bull? An academic study indicates that’s the wrong question to ask.
- The right question is to determine whether we are in an equity bull so that AI stocks can take advantage of the bull trend. Breadth needs to broaden out.
- The other and more conventional explanation of market structure is an unhealthy advance against a backdrop of a market that’s positioning for a recession.
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