Daily Brief South Korea: Hankook & Company, JSW Infrastructure and more

• MBK Partners has increased its Hankook & Company (000240 KS) partial tender offer to KRW24,000 per share, 20.0% and 51.4% above its previous offer and the last close, respectively.
• While the offer is attractive, we estimate that the minimum acceptance condition of 19.3 million shares (20.35% of outstanding shares) requires an 84.3% minority acceptance rate. 
• The minority acceptance rate is challenging unless MBK can secure a ruling preventing share purchases from Cho Yang-rai, who disclosed a 2.72% stake on 14 December and opposes the tender. 

• Critical now is estimating MBK’s achievable volume in the tender offer, a key indicator for assessing cancellation risk. Evidence suggests few allies for Cho Hyun-beom, prompting MBK’s strategic persistence.
• MBK can secure 23.58%, but NPS’s involvement is pivotal. If neutral, MBK aims for 19.55%, below the minimum. MBK proceeds with a revised offering price, anticipating NPS participation.
• Though the FSS investigation may favor MBK, a successful tender offer depends on achieving 87% participation. The higher-than-expected likelihood of success hints at a strong upward stock adjustment from Monday.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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