Daily Brief South Korea: Doosan Bobcat Inc, SK Innovation, SK Telecom and more

In today’s briefing:

Doosan Group Revises Merger Report and Increasing Probability of Merger Getting Cancelled
The Unusual Flow Trading Development Caused by SK Innovation’s Appraisal Rights Premium
SK Telecom: A Blue-Chip Defensive Stock That Could Outperform KOSPI Amid Market Turmoil

Doosan Group Revises Merger Report and Increasing Probability of Merger Getting Cancelled

On 6 August, the Doosan Group announced a revised merger report. Despite some changes in the merger report, there was no change the merger ratios.
Many minority shareholders of Doosan Enerbility and Doosan Bobcat are likely to oppose this merger. The net result is an increasing probability that this merger gets cancelled, in our view.
Doosan Enerbility has set aside about 600 billion won for exercise of appraisal rights and if it exceeds this amount, the merger may be cancelled.

Exceeding the ceiling doesn’t cancel the merger; SK Innovation can still proceed. With their decision confirmed, focus should shift to appraisal rights flows rather than cancellation risk.
We should focus on flow trading given the notable exercise size and potential for unprecedented market activity if institutions, including the NPS, exercise their rights due to the juicy premium.
The large exercise size and SK Innovation’s KOSPI large-cap status may create unique flow trading opportunities, with potential repurchases after new shares list.

Amid recent market turmoil, we believe that SK Telecom could be a solid blue-chip, defensive Korean stock that could outperform the market in the next 6-12 months.
SK Telecom reported better than expected profits in 2Q 2024. The company’s sales were 0.5% higher than the consensus and its operating profit was 3.9% higher than the consensus estimates.
SK Telecom’s shareholder return policy is to return at least 50% of adjusted profit for the year on a consolidated basis.

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