In today’s briefing:
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 12 Apr 2024
- Gold and Goldilocks
- Monetary Authority of Singapore: Apr-24
- The Weekly Market Monitor – Fed Doves Have Nowhere to Fly, Gold’s Fairytale Continues
- UK Inflation Watch: A dovish surprise upcoming
- Korea Policy Rate 3.5% (consensus 3.5%) in Apr-24
- HEW: Different Evidential Hurdles
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 12 Apr 2024
- Busy week with US interest rates, Thailand’s monetary policy, and Vietnam’s economic dynamics.
- Analysis reveals US inflation concerns impacting interest rate expectations, while Thailand faces challenges balancing government interference and economic growth.
- Vietnam’s mixed economic indicators reflect external sector resilience but domestic sector weakness, prompting investment adjustments including removal of short on US dollar and introduction of long positions on gold and copper.
Gold and Goldilocks
- This week’s ‘CPI Print’ has caused something of a panic in the bond markets and has left the ‘Pivot’ Pundits struggling versus the ‘No Cuts’ crowd, some of whom are now doubling down and even talking about rate rises.
- Traders in other markets are looking across with some degree of concern, long wary of the ability of the bond markets to trigger problems elsewhere.
- So too are the politicians, keen for their particular narrative on the economy to win them votes, but concerned that they need the markets (and by extension the Fed) to support their cause.
Monetary Authority of Singapore: Apr-24
- The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) maintains the rate of appreciation of the S$NEER policy band to manage imported inflation and domestic economic pressures amid a nuanced global and local economic environment.
- Future policy decisions will be influenced by global economic conditions, domestic economic dynamics, and inflation trends, focusing on the anticipated easing of inflation by the end of 2024.
- MAS emphasizes its commitment to closely monitoring global and domestic developments, preparing to adjust policies as needed to ensure medium-term economic stability.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
The Weekly Market Monitor – Fed Doves Have Nowhere to Fly, Gold’s Fairytale Continues
- After three disappointing CPI reports, ‘Jay’ has only a tiny platform left to perform his dovish act.
- The ongoing decline of US Small Business Sentiment confirms the odds of a US recession are not zero.
- Gold is smashing record after record, and economy pundits keep telling you this is all about momentum.
UK Inflation Watch: A dovish surprise upcoming
- Welcome to our monthly UK CPI watch.
- March has been out of the ordinary in 2023 and 2022, which makes for extremely benign base effects in YoY terms for UK CPI inflation this year.
- We typically see 0.1-0.2% MoM service inflation in March, which is seasonally soft, while also food prices typically soften during the early spring.
Korea Policy Rate 3.5% (consensus 3.5%) in Apr-24
- The Bank of Korea has maintained the Policy Rate at 3.5%, aligning with the economic consensus in response to ongoing global uncertainties, notably the varied monetary policies of major economies and geopolitical risks.
- Inflation dynamics influenced by volatile commodity prices alongside a slowing core inflation rate dictate a cautious monetary policy to stabilize mid-term inflation expectations.
- Financial stability remains a priority, with the central bank monitoring household debt and real estate market risks alongside global financial market fluctuations to guide future interest rate decisions amidst uncertain economic conditions.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
HEW: Different Evidential Hurdles
- Market movements this week were largely influenced by a robust US inflation release, causing a shift towards September predictions. However, expectations for ECB and BoE were moved three months earlier.
- Only Chile has policy announcements next week following the recent spate of news.
- In the UK, focus will shift to macro data including labour market, inflation, and retail sales. The final EA HICP data will also be released, with a minor risk of an upward revision.
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