In today’s briefing:
- VIX Isn’t Broken. It Is Diluted by 0DTE Options That Have Shifted Target Risk Windows.
- Vietnam Poised to Be Winner in Global Competition for Investments
- EUR Inflation Watch: Another Dovish Surprise Due to Black Week/Month?
- The Great Game – Dutch Right Swing
- G3 Central Bank Watch: More Fuel to the 2007 = 2023 Analogy
- Energy Cable: The Review that Became a Preview!
- CX Daily: Thanksgiving Dinner Reveals Price of ‘Bidenomics’
VIX Isn’t Broken. It Is Diluted by 0DTE Options That Have Shifted Target Risk Windows.
- Geo-Politics are tense. Monetary policies are in contraction. Rates are on hawkish pause. Inflation is far from tamed. Financial conditions remain tight. VIX should be anything but sanguine.
- Any misjudgment across politicians, central bankers or businesses could send equities tanking or soaring. Yet the VIX is sending a calming signal.
- VIX isn’t broken. It has been diluted by rise of Zero DTE (0DTE) options which have shifted risk pricing windows away from VIX target expiry range.
Vietnam Poised to Be Winner in Global Competition for Investments
- Vietnam’s economy is regaining its footing after a difficult first half in 2023. Industrial activity and trade picking up, complementing still-healthy growth in the services sector. y.
- Despite the cyclical difficulties, foreign investments into Vietnam are on the up. Advantageous economic geography and diplomacy are powerful pull factors.
- However, defective infrastructure, including in transport and utilities, limits the scope of Hanoi’s economic ambitions. These must be fixed if investments are to remain in Vietnam.
EUR Inflation Watch: Another Dovish Surprise Due to Black Week/Month?
- We see clear downside risks to the consensus forecasts for November inflation in Europe due to small seasonal expectations for price cuts in various seasonally dependent cost categories.
- In our preview, we will assess the scope for surprises in the core countries and on the aggregate Euro area level.
- Especially German inflation looks seasonally high in the consensus forecast.
The Great Game – Dutch Right Swing
- Welcome to this week’s Great Game, where we cover the most important news in global politics and how they affect your portfolio.
- This week, we’ll cover the landslide win of Geert Wilders in the Dutch general elections as well as the most recent developments in the Middle East.
- Is Wilders a non-event for markets?
G3 Central Bank Watch: More Fuel to the 2007 = 2023 Analogy
- We have used the 2007 = 2023 analogy a few times already this year and we continue to find coincidental evidence that looks a lot like the emerging pressures built up in the quarters preceding the financial crisis.
- The outcome of 2024 is still up in the air, but credit indicators do not look pretty ahead of next year when we combine the impulse in China, the US and the Euro area in an aggregate model and judging from the central bank behavior, we see a lot of similarities to 2007 across the BoJ, the Fed and the ECB.
- Let’s briefly explain why in this central bank watch piece!
Energy Cable: The Review that Became a Preview!
- Our apologies for the slightly delayed Energy Cable.
- IWhat a week for OPEC! Sources in OPEC+ leaked that Russia and Saudi Arabia were in agreement to delay the meeting due to issues around some other producers (which made us laugh hard given Russia’s own export numbers compared to their quotas).
- We have had a look at OPEC production and export numbers and it seems like production is much more price-bullish than actual net exports (meaning a draw on local OPEC inventories).
CX Daily: Thanksgiving Dinner Reveals Price of ‘Bidenomics’
- Bidenomics / Cover Story: Thanksgiving dinner reveals price of ‘Bidenomics’
Trade /: China, Japan, South Korea foreign ministers agree to work on reviving leaders’ summit
Private /: China to offer private firms bigger helping hand
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