In today’s briefing:
- [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/50] Henry Hub Gains as LNG Exports Offset Soft Winter Outlook
- UK Wages Torch Dovish Feathers
- CX Daily: How Regulation Shake-Up Cast Public-Private Partnerships Into Limbo
- Historic Coffee Price Rally & WASDE Report Recap
- India: Policy Rate to Decline 75bp by Jun’25 as Inflation Recedes
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/50] Henry Hub Gains as LNG Exports Offset Soft Winter Outlook
- US natural gas prices rose 6.6% for the week ending 13/Dec, driven by rising LNG exports, despite downward pressure from milder winter forecasts.
- Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio rose to 1.10 from 1.06 (06/Dec) the previous week as put volumes rose by 21.5% WoW, while call volumes increased by 16.5%.
- Henry Hub OI PCR fell to 0.83 from 0.84 compared to last week. Call OI rose by 5.4% WoW, while put OI increased by 4.8%.
UK Wages Torch Dovish Feathers
- UK unemployment stopped rising in October, with the 4.3% rate close to the average of the past 18 months. The underlying trend is only for a slight weakening after strength.
- Employment and hours worked are booming, partly owing to recent revisions. The poor productivity performance raises the hawkish pressure from these activity data.
- Resurgent wages compound the hawkish news as private pay jumps on not-yet-captured public sector settlements. These data torch the dovish case for cutting rates this week.
CX Daily: How Regulation Shake-Up Cast Public-Private Partnerships Into Limbo
- PPP / Cover Story: How regulation shake-up cast public-private partnerships into limbo
Hong Kong /In Depth: Mainlanders flood Hong Kong talent program
Ji Yue /Baidu, Geely offer limited help to stalled EV brand
Historic Coffee Price Rally & WASDE Report Recap
- Historic Coffee Price Rally During the week Coffee Futures hit a new all-time high.
- Supply concerns continue to fuel the rally in a strongly backwardated futures market.
- The drought that El Niño weather brought over to Brazil over the last summer continue to be persistent.
India: Policy Rate to Decline 75bp by Jun’25 as Inflation Recedes
- WPI inflation eased to 1.9%YoY in Nov’24, implying that the real policy rate was +4.6%, reining in industrial growth. Using CPI, the real policy rate in Nov’24 was +1.04%.
- That seeming divergence is mainly caused by vegetable inflation, which moderated to a still-high 29.2%YoY in Nov’24 (from Oct’24’s 42.2%YoY!). Core CPI inflation has remained below 4%YoY since Dec’23.
- The bountiful winter harvest is likely to prompt a steady moderation in food/headline CPI inflation to below 4%YoY by Apr’25. We expect the repo rate to decline 75bp by Jun’25.
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