In today’s briefing:
- US: Harris Wins the Presidential Debate Hands Down, but Impact on Race Still Mild
- [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/36] WTI Crude Hits 2024 Low as Demand Woes Linger
- [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/36] Henry Hub Up on LNG Exports, Output Cut Offsets Hurricane Impact
- CX Daily: China’s Never-Ending Bond Bull Run Fuels Speculation Regulators May Intervene
- The Drill: The left tail in oil just got bigger
- U.S. August CPI – Core at a Four-Month High Led by Shelter and Air Fares
- CrossASEAN Ground Zero – MR DIY Thailand IPO, PropertyGuru, Fibre Battles, and GoTo
- UK: GDP Quickly Decelerating To Trend
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Industrial Production
US: Harris Wins the Presidential Debate Hands Down, but Impact on Race Still Mild
- In possibly the only Trump-Harris presidential debate, VP Kamala Harris clearly won, according to polls/focus groups conducted by FoxNews and CNN, as well as the vast majority of commentators.
- Harris largely remained focused on centrist positions, and was able to bait Trump into angry outbursts and digressions away from his key talking points. The economy remained her Achilles Heel.
- Weakness on the economy, and the failure to highlight her “freedom” theme, meant that Harris didn’t score a slam dunk. The race is a dead heat, Harris a nose ahead.
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/36] WTI Crude Hits 2024 Low as Demand Woes Linger
- WTI futures closed at its 2024 low on 10/Sep, as demand concerns dragged prices down as the supply risk premium dimmed.
- WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1.09 (10/Sep) from 1.20 the week prior as put volume fell 13.6% WoW while call volume fell by only 4.3%.
- WTI OI PCR was unchanged at 0.77 for the week ending 10/Sep from 04/Sep. Call OI rose 6.8% WoW and put OI picked up by 6.4%.
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/36] Henry Hub Up on LNG Exports, Output Cut Offsets Hurricane Impact
- US natural gas prices rose 7% for the week ending 06/Sep, boosted by higher cooling demand, rising LNG exports, falling output, and moderate build-up in US natural gas storage.
- Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio fell to 1.06 (10/Sep) from 1.17 (04/Sep) as put volumes fell by 17.9% WoW, while call volumes declined by 9.6%.
- Put OI increased for expiries on 25/Sep, Oct, and Nov. While call OI picked up for contracts expiring in Dec, Jan, Feb, and Mar.
CX Daily: China’s Never-Ending Bond Bull Run Fuels Speculation Regulators May Intervene
- Bonds / In Depth: China’s never-ending bond bull run fuels speculation regulators may intervene
- Typhoon /: Insurers receive $18 million claims after super Typhoon hits southern China
- Investment bank /: China Renaissance shares plunge as trading resumes, founder still missing
The Drill: The left tail in oil just got bigger
- Brent crude fell to a 17-month low after the markets largely ignored OPEC+’s decision not to increase production.
- This highlights once again the point we’ve been making: the current cycle of supply cuts is unsustainable, and as time goes on, it only becomes increasingly unsustainable.
- The only viable option left for OPEC might be to engage in a market-share war, driving out producers with higher marginal costs by pushing prices down.
U.S. August CPI – Core at a Four-Month High Led by Shelter and Air Fares
- August core CPI has disappointed to the upside with a 0.3% rise ex food and energy with the rise being 0.28% before rounding, a four month high.
- Overall CPI rose by 0.2% as expected, and by 0.19% before rounding. The data is likely to ensure that the FOMC eases by only 25bps in September.
- Shelter and air fares were the most obvious contributors to the upside surprise in the core rate.
CrossASEAN Ground Zero – MR DIY Thailand IPO, PropertyGuru, Fibre Battles, and GoTo
- In this edition, we look at MY DIY Thailand’s plans for an IPO, PropertyGuru’s latest results, and the increase in M&A activity in the Indonesian fibre-optic space.
- We also look at the implications of GoTo’s exit from Vietnam, as it increasingly focuses on profitability in its home market and Singapore.
- CrossASEAN Ground Zero is a thematic weekly product that focuses on key Southeast Asian themes and technology trends with a core focus on Indonesia.
UK: GDP Quickly Decelerating To Trend
- GDP was unchanged for the second consecutive month in July, disappointing growth expectations. It is quickly decelerating back to its trend after recovering H2’s shortfall.
- Growth in the PMI-consistent sectors has slowed abruptly, aligning with residual seasonality that should reach a trough nearby within the next two months.
- Three quarters of GDP growth at least matching potential corroborates unemployment falling over the past year. Nonetheless, the BoE is likely to next cut again in November.
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Industrial Production
- Industrial activity surprised to the upside, growing 0.23% MoM in July.
- The uptick is explained by the rebound in mining services and construction.
- On the other hand, manufacturing activity declined -0.78% MoM due to the fall of industries linked to international trade.
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