In today’s briefing:
- US Debt Ceiling Raise Tells Us Gold Is Going Up… It Must Be Part Of Every Portfolio
- Back to a Focus on Technicals
- Macro Watch – Here Is Why a Debt Ceiling Deal May Be NEGATIVE for Equities
- China Recovery – Households
US Debt Ceiling Raise Tells Us Gold Is Going Up… It Must Be Part Of Every Portfolio
- US debt ceiling agreement warns again about upcoming monetary inflation. Gold (and crypto) is a great hedge against monetary inflation, but less good against cost inflation
- US debt problem demands near double-digit annual growth in Fed balance sheet over next decade… QE is not dead!
- Gold could easily test US$3000/ oz. Bitcoin could do even better! Buy into any near-term weakness
Back to a Focus on Technicals
- The debt ceiling drama has been too much of a distraction for U.S. equity investors. It’s time to focus again on the technicals.
- A review of the market’s technical structure reveals serious negative divergences characterized by bubbly narrow leadership and weakening cyclical indicators.
- While this doesn’t mean that the stock market is about to crash, it does indicate that investors should be prepared for reduced long-term return expectations from U.S. equities.
Macro Watch – Here Is Why a Debt Ceiling Deal May Be NEGATIVE for Equities
- The debt ceiling deal marks the end of USD liquidity increases
- The US Treasury will issue bills and bonds again soon withdrawing liquidity
- Will the USD continue to surge while risk assets will suffer?
China Recovery – Households
- This is the second of three notes on China’s recovery.
- Most, if not all, bullish consumer recovery scenarios have been based on the revenge spending model that analysts witnessed in other parts of the world.
- There is no question that it is human to do things like recreation, shopping, and travel after three years of lockdowns.
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