In today’s briefing:
- US CPI Update: If There Was Only Inflation, Things Would Still Look Complicated
- CX Daily: As China’s Property Crisis Deepens, Sinking Shares Spark Delisting Threat
- Portfolio Watch: From a bond bear bonanza to a stock rally
- TPW Advisory Friday Musings: When Facts Rock Fiction
US CPI Update: If There Was Only Inflation, Things Would Still Look Complicated
- US headline inflation dropped to 3.0%, reaching its lowest level since March 2021. Core inflation declined to 4.8%, falling below the 5% threshold for the first time since November 2021.
- The average 1-month annualized CPI inflation in June was 1.1%, well below the Fed target. Prices barely rose in June.
- Unlike headline inflation, Core CPI and Core Services ex Shelter CPI have ample room to decline further this year. Unfortunately, markets are already way ahead of this again.
CX Daily: As China’s Property Crisis Deepens, Sinking Shares Spark Delisting Threat
- Delisting /In Depth: As China’s property crisis deepens, sinking shares spark delisting threat
- Carbon /: Xi calls for adopting ‘dual control’ system for carbon emissions and intensity
- Corruption /: Top Shanghai lawmaker under graft investigation
Portfolio Watch: From a bond bear bonanza to a stock rally
- Good Friday everyone!We are back with our Portfolio Watch here as we embark on the week’s last trading day!We are not surprised by this week’s bounce nor are we unhappy with the profits we’ve made on the back of it.
- As I wrote in last week’s Portfolio Watch: “(…)We have been taking in some water in our longs in bonds and equities and while we won’t be surprised by a rebound next week, we may be entering a phase where adding shorts is a prudent risk/reward option” and here we are with what looks like the best week for global stocks since NovemberChart 1: Global Equity PerformanceWe accurately anticipated and benefited from the release of the CPI data, as our long bonds and equity beta allocations proved fruitful.
- Our models indicated a CPI reading below market consensus, leading us to maintain our long exposure and anticipate potential difficulties for bond shorts.
TPW Advisory Friday Musings: When Facts Rock Fiction
- Excited to finally get to use this title – it’s been in the back pocket for quite some time but after this week’s global, cross asset, market moves its time.
- We had the opportunity to try it out on BTV’s The Open show this morning; today’s Musings come straight from my notes for the hit.
- The full line is “When Facts Rock Fiction, Always Cause Friction” (any guesses as to band or song? LMK).
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