In today’s briefing:
- US CPI Review – Everything is soft in April
- Positioning Watch – How are Macro Hedge Funds positioned?
- CX Daily: China’s Weaker Insurers Skip Early Bond Redemptions Amid Growing Financial Stress
- China Takes It up Another Notch-Property Proposals Change the Game
- EA GDP Rebounds Without Productivity
- China Watch: No one has noticed that China is exporting INFLATION again..
- US CPI Inflation 3.36% y-o-y (consensus 3.4%) in Apr-24
US CPI Review – Everything is soft in April
- Main Takeaways: Core inflation is still way too hot, but this report speaks well to the crowd hoping for rate cuts.
- Food and Shelter are the two dovish surprises… Both are re-accelerating in live data which will likely come into effect laterApril was super soft in real-time activity data and there isn’t much to suggest that it will continue in May, where data is on the rise again… But for now, this feeds the FCI loop in a positive sense, which will allow risk assets to ride the dovish CPI wave for now.
- US Headline CPI rose 0.31% on the month, whilst core inflation increased by 0.29%, with consensus at 0.4% and 0.3%.
Positioning Watch – How are Macro Hedge Funds positioned?
- Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Positioning Watch – insights into how market participants are positioned.
- Markets are waiting patiently for the US CPI report today before placing their bets it seems, with little to no action seen yesterday and in European opening hours yesterday.
- As elaborated upon in our “Week At a Glance” on Monday, we see hawkish surprises to both headline and core inflation , which will not be good news for markets, who have seemingly returned to their hopes of rate cut(s) this year.
CX Daily: China’s Weaker Insurers Skip Early Bond Redemptions Amid Growing Financial Stress
- Insurers / In Depth: China’s weaker insurers skip early bond redemptions amid growing financial stress
- China-Russia /: China invites Putin for state visit
- Justice /China: seeks to eliminate regulations that hurt business environment
China Takes It up Another Notch-Property Proposals Change the Game
- China is following the Fed’s playbook of keeping market momentum going with good news and actions
- The HK dividend scheme is a prime example of that
- The latest proposal for unsold properties will remove a major barrier to a bottom in the property market.
EA GDP Rebounds Without Productivity
- Eurostat’s second estimate confirmed the EA’s 0.3% q-o-q rebound out of technical recession. That fully recovers the H2 fall, although it was partial for Germany.
- Employment growth matched GDP in Q1, extending the persistently poor productivity performance. Eastern Europe’s structural catch-up is a relatively small bright spot.
- Jobs-intensive growth is keeping unemployment at its lows even as it rises elsewhere. EA potential looks relatively impaired rather than facing tighter monetary conditions.
China Watch: No one has noticed that China is exporting INFLATION again..
- Welcome to our weekly EM editorial where we shed light on the most important developments in the EM space in the context of the impulses from the USD markets.
- Things are heating up in the global macro space as we are standing at crossroads.
- Is the macro momentum finally rolling over globally (including in the US) or are we amidst a potential rebound from China that wreaks havoc with the current increasingly dovish Western consensus?
US CPI Inflation 3.36% y-o-y (consensus 3.4%) in Apr-24
- US CPI inflation in April 2024 slowed to 3.36% year-on-year, slightly lower than the consensus estimate.
- The Core CPI rate in April 2024 matched expectations by slowing to 3.6% year-on-year.
- Despite the improvement, the Core CPI rate still indicates excessively high underlying pressures.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
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