In today’s briefing:
- UK: Quarter Ends Low Again in Mar-23
- Commodity and FX Impulse Moves
- CX Daily: Grim Year For China’s Bankers, Brokers As Pay Slashed
- TPW Advisory Friday Musings: It’s In Da Price
UK: Quarter Ends Low Again in Mar-23
- UK GDP contracted by 0.3% m-o-m in Mar-23 as struggles in the services sector more than offset resilience in the industrial sectors.
- This quarter is the fourth consecutive one to end on a low, so we are not worried about it or the carry-over effect. We still expect no Q2 GDP growth.
- Surveys suggest upside risks to GDP growth, encouraging inflationary excesses to extend even further and sustaining hawkish policy pressures.
Commodity and FX Impulse Moves
- We review some charts, starting with commodities that are precariously close to signalling a breakdown.
- The weakness became pronounced after China’s PPI, CPI, and the disappointing Aggregate Finance data (this needs a separate section).
- If China’s recovery continues to be disappointing, then the deflation of exports and a long position on commodities will be a big problem for the rest of the world.
CX Daily: Grim Year For China’s Bankers, Brokers As Pay Slashed
- Pay /In Depth: Grim year for China’s bankers, brokers as pay slashed
- Border /: China resumes fast-lane services for cross-border travel
- Audit /: U.S. audit watchdog finds deficiencies in first China inspection
TPW Advisory Friday Musings: It’s In Da Price
- Given the ever-thicker curtain of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty & Doubt) and the swirling cross currents of economic data here in the US and elsewhere we continue to lean on the markets themselves to tell us what’s happening – the old adage of: let the market tell us rather than we try to tell the market what’s happening.
- We think the stock market in particular is telling us quite a bit these days, information that can be boiled down to the vernacular saying that we choose for today’s Musings: it’s in da price.
- Today’s title came to me after yesterday’s close when I checked to see how the US regional banks had fared, using KRE as my proxy.
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