In today’s briefing:
- UK Inflation Basket Case
- BTC Is Down >10%; Is This a Buy-The-Dip Moment?
- The Week at a Glance: Stagflation or (temporary) Goldilocks?
- Energy Cable: When it Rains, It Pours in Shipping
- Actinver – Macro Daily: Inflation, June 2024
- CX Daily: China’s Power Market Reform Poised to Level Up as Renewables Plug In
UK Inflation Basket Case
- Expected core inflation is more policy-relevant than the current pace. Service price inflation is a suboptimal signal for predicting medium-term inflationary pressures.
- Median inflation is typically the best single measure for prediction, but many options exist. Baskets built from multiple statistical measures are consistently better signals.
- The most potent underlying statistical measures are stuck above a target-consistent pace, and wage settlements worryingly still signal excessive fundamental pressure.
BTC Is Down >10%; Is This a Buy-The-Dip Moment?
- Bitcoin’s 11% drop was influenced by the German government’s BTC liquidations, large long position liquidations, and the start of Mt. Gox repayments, increasing market supply.
- Bitcoin’s downturn is countered by significant ETF inflows, indicating investor optimism. Concurrently, the fear and greed index’s low levels point to potential buying opportunities.
- Ethereum is poised for growth with upcoming ETF approvals likely to drive substantial spot buying, positioning ETH for relative outperformance against Bitcoin.
The Week at a Glance: Stagflation or (temporary) Goldilocks?
- Remember that we are replacing our “Something for your Espresso” with “The Week at a Glance” every Monday, featuring forward-looking expectations for the macro trading week ahead.
- This week is another make-or-break week in US macro as growth surprises have turned negative lately.
- This is not a major issue as long as the inflation surprises follow, as fears of weaker growth are alleviated by softer discount rates and lower inflation expectations in such a case.
Energy Cable: When it Rains, It Pours in Shipping
- Takeaways: More pressures on freight rates… Still no spillover to PPI/CPI. Hedge funds appear to have an appetite for crude oil, but not so much for energy stocks. Macro data more tilted towards normalization rather than weakening.
- Greetings from a cloudy Copenhagen and welcome to another Energy Cable, following last week’s weak-ish ISM prints. Ready for more turmoil in shipping?
- A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S has announced that extreme weather conditions, including a storm surge along the South African coast, are expected to cause shipping delays.
Actinver – Macro Daily: Inflation, June 2024
- Inflation in the second half of June was above our expectations, at 0.53%, while core inflation was at 0.13%.
- So far, Banco de Mexico has not signaled that its monetary policy decisions will weigh core over headline inflation.
- Thus, it increases the likelihood for only one cut in the rest of the year.
CX Daily: China’s Power Market Reform Poised to Level Up as Renewables Plug In
- Power / Cover Story: China’s power market reform poised to level up as renewables plug in
- AI /: Everyone should have a say in making the rules for artificial intelligence, Singapore AI czar says
- Deutsche Bank: /Deutsche Bank sees rosy future in helping multinationals tap Chinese market
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