In today’s briefing:
- UK: Housing Market Skids Toward a Crash
UK: Housing Market Skids Toward a Crash
- Surveys are starting to confirm anecdotal evidence of a severe shock hitting the housing market in October after the government’s disastrous fiscal event.
- Mortgage rates in November are yet to follow swaps down, so the pain is still palpable for households. A house price crash looks increasingly difficult to avoid.
- We now assume a 5% price decline but see the market on the cusp of a downward spiral fed by adaptive expectations, which would mean a fall nearer 15%.
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