In today’s briefing:
- UK: Green Shoots For Unemployment Wilt
- US Bear Market: BETWEEN DENIAL AND ANGER THERE IS “HOPE”
- Steno Signals #193 – The USD Reset Is Underway
- Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 April
- Singapore Enters Escalating Trade War on Soft Footing
- Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 14 April
- Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April
- India’s FDI Soars in ’25: In Up, Out Down!
- Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 14 April
- Stay Overweight Taiwan
UK: Green Shoots For Unemployment Wilt
- Signs that statistical effects might lower the unemployment rate in the Spring have weakened, with stability at 4.4% now more likely amid stagnant underlying trends.
- Levels remain healthy and redundancies are low despite falling vacancies, suggesting resilience survives rather than thrives. Rapid wage growth is more problematic.
- Dovish hopes that excesses will break soon, aided by destructive US trade policy, keep the BoE on track to cut in May. Sterling strength also adds disinflationary space.
US Bear Market: BETWEEN DENIAL AND ANGER THERE IS “HOPE”
- The S&P bounced off its support level of 4800 and is now consolidating on investor hopes that the worst is over as volatility declines.
- As the economic numbers weaken and inflation accelerates from tariffs we expect the market to take its next leg down and enter a secular bear market.
- As the economic numbers weaken and inflation accelerates from tariffs we expect the market to take its next leg down and enter a secular bear market.
Steno Signals #193 – The USD Reset Is Underway
- Morning from Copenhagen!It’s been a remarkable week—and weekend—in policy space.
- On Friday, the White House released a list of exemptions from the reciprocal tariffs (including, for example, semiconductors).
- Then, on Sunday, Trump “tweeted” that no exemptions were made, leaving Howard Lutnick once again to explain what was actually going on.
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 April
- Asia’s base oils prices surge relative to feedstock and gasoil prices.
- Surge in margins include light-grade base oils, for which supply is more readily available.
- Increasingly high margins and closed arbitrage to other markets by contrast points to tight supply.
Singapore Enters Escalating Trade War on Soft Footing
- 1Q25 advanced estimates warn that the Singapore economy is entering the current unprecedented period of trade turmoil already burdened by broad signs of slowdown.
- With inflationary pressures also moderating, the Monetary Authority of Singapore has aptly continued its monetary easing stance in its recent April review.
- Still, with Singapore likely to be much more severely hit by the breakdown of the global rules-based order than others, a forceful fiscal response is needed to prevent a recession.
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 14 April
- Global base oils prices rise sharply vs feedstock/gasoil prices.
- Price premiums climb at time of year when they typically rise strongly in response to firmer supply-demand fundamentals.
- Rise in price premiums in April 2025 coincides with slump in crude oil prices.
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 14 April
- US base oils demand could face more pressure from concern about growing disconnect between base oils prices and crude oil and feedstock prices.
- Widening base oil premium to feedstock and diesel prices points to sudden improvement in demand and tightening supply.
- Timing of surge in base oils premium suggests it is linked more to slump in crude oil prices than to marked change in supply-demand fundamentals.
India’s FDI Soars in ’25: In Up, Out Down!
- Net FDI inflows hit USD 3.7B in Jan ’25, up from USD 2.3B, matching Aug ’24 after months of decline.
- FDI outflows dropped to USD 2.1B, lowest since Jun ’22, driving the rebound despite lower gross inflows.
- Apr-Jan ’24-25 net FDI fell 7.4% to USD 21.6B; tech and manufacturing led, per RBI and UNCTAD reports.
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 14 April
- US base oils export price discount to Asia base oils prices stays wide so far this year.
- Wide price discount facilitates shipment of surplus supplies to markets like India.
- US base oils and lube exports to India surge in Feb 2025, reflecting that dynamic.
Stay Overweight Taiwan
- Taiwan stands out, despite facing in 90 days a 34% reciprocal tariff rate imposed by Trump.
- Corporate profits, investment and credit are all on the upswing, while the cost of capital remains extremely indicating that the business cycle has further to run.
- The economy is firing on all cylinders: domestic demand is rising strongly and so are exports.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
Unlock all research summaries