In today’s briefing:
- Trump Watch: Possible U-Turn on Tariffs?
- Overseas Equity ETFs Surpass Domestic Equity ETFs For the First Time in 17 Years
- China Economics: Don’t Celebrate October’s Uptick Just Yet
- [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/46] Henry Hub Prices Increased as Demand Outlook Improved
- [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/46] WTI Dropped Amid Weak Demand Outlook and Strong Dollar
- UK Inflation Flies Cuts To 2025
- Ivory Coast Lists Four Point Strategy To Place Its Rubber Globally
- CX Daily: China Is Making Sure Its Low-Altitude Economy is Ready for Takeoff
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Public Finance 2025
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 1h-Nov
Trump Watch: Possible U-Turn on Tariffs?
- Our Geopolitical team is wrapping up an analysis on the escalating Ukraine-Russia conflict.
- In the meantime, here’s a piece we believe markets might not yet be fully tuned into:With Donald Trump and Elon Musk seemingly forming a close alliance, their influence on trade and economic policies has become a hot topic.
- Notably, Vivek Ramaswamy and Musk have thrown their support behind Javier Milei’s economic strategy in Argentina, which includes radical measures such as aggressive spending cuts and a commitment to reducing trade barriers.
Overseas Equity ETFs Surpass Domestic Equity ETFs For the First Time in 17 Years
- One of the biggest trends impacting the fund flow in Korea this year has been the huge capital inflow into overseas equity ETFs.
- The net asset value of the listed ETFs in Korea investing in overseas stocks surpassed the ETFs investing in domestic stocks for the first time in 17 years.
- The ETFs that invest in overseas stocks were 35.8 trillion won on 12 November 2024, up 111% from 12 January 2024.
China Economics: Don’t Celebrate October’s Uptick Just Yet
- The tentative green shoots in consumer and business demand seen in the latest data are likely due to one-off factors. A sustained recovery is still some distance away.
- The fundamental underpinnings of domestic demand remain shaky, given continued weakness in the labour and property markets and external uncertainties.
- Moreover, with the trade war likely to be escalated by the next US administration, the Chinese economy may suffer material damage from a more hostile external environment.
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/46] Henry Hub Prices Increased as Demand Outlook Improved
- US natural gas prices rose 5.77% for the week ending 15/Nov, buoyed by forecasts of cooler weather, rising US LNG exports, and declining production.
- Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio sharply rose to 1.08 from 0.65 (08/Nov) the previous week as put volumes rose by 53.5% WoW, while call volumes fell by 7.0%.
- Call OI increased for December, January, February, and March expirations, while put OI was substantial for November, April, May, June, and July contracts.
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/46] WTI Dropped Amid Weak Demand Outlook and Strong Dollar
- WTI futures dropped 4.77% for the week ending 15/Nov, pressured by a bleak demand outlook, a rising dollar, and weak economic data from China.
- WTI options Put/Call volume ratio rose to 1.00 from 0.66 (08/Nov) last week, as call volume dropped by 57.3% WoW and put volume fell by 35.4%.
- WTI OI PCR climbed to 0.86 from 0.77 (08/Nov) last week. Call OI fell by 37.9% WoW, while put OI fell by 29.9%.
UK Inflation Flies Cuts To 2025
- A surprising airfare rebound extended CPI inflation’s energised rise to 2.3%. Its higher weighting in core and services measures compounded the upside surprise there.
- Underlying inflation also strengthened on other measures, like the median, and looks inconsistent with a sustainable return to the inflation target.
- We still expect inflation to trend above the target in 2025 on excessive unit labour cost pressures. The BoE can remain gradual in its easing cycle, skipping a cut in December.
Ivory Coast Lists Four Point Strategy To Place Its Rubber Globally
- Rubber Meet spots Risk Center, EUDR, industry academy as priorities
- RAOT delegation holds talks with APROMAC top brass
- Ivory Coast cup lump exports ban to stay, says APROMAC official
CX Daily: China Is Making Sure Its Low-Altitude Economy is Ready for Takeoff
- Airspace / China is making sure its low-altitude economy is ready for takeoff China is looking to the skies for future growth as it nurtures its nascent low-altitude economy with efforts to launch pilot programs for new aviation services.
- The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country’s top economic planner, is to create a Low-Altitude Economy Department to oversee the sector as it takes off, according to Chen Zhijie, director of the State Key Laboratory of Air Traffic Management System and Technology.
- At the same time, the central government is drawing up detailed industry guidelines to establish a regulatory framework for the sector, Chen said at a Monday forum.
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Public Finance 2025
- The 2025 budget sends the right signals to the market by reinstating financial discipline.
- However, given the macroeconomic assumptions, the global economic environment, and the limited flexibility in spending, there is little room for deviations.
- The federal government presented the 2025 Economic Package, in which the broadest measure of debt (Public Sector Financial Requirements, RFSP) is planned to decrease from 5.9% of GDP this year to 3.9% in 2025.
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 1h-Nov
- For the first half of November, we forecast headline inflation at 0.40% bw, below the historical average due to the early discount season of “El Buen Fin”.
- This would bring inflation to 4.59% YoY.
- Our estimate of 0.40% bw is below the historical average of 0.54% bw for this period.
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