In today’s briefing:
- Time to Reconsider the Equity Bull Case?
- Comparing S&P 500 Today to the October Bottom
- The Weekly Market Monitor – Immaculate Disinflation, Spiking Yields, and the Waiting Continues
- Monitoring Global Central Bank Actions for Potential Clues
Time to Reconsider the Equity Bull Case?
- We highlighted a long-term buy signal in late July and early August when the monthly MACD of the NYSE Composite turned positive.
- Now that the MACD buy signal has reversed itself and turned negative again. Is it time to reconsider the equity bull case?
- We interpret this to mean that the latest episode of market weakness as only corrective and not the start of a major bear market.
Comparing S&P 500 Today to the October Bottom
- The recent downdraft in stock prices left many indicators in severely oversold territory.
- How oversold? As oversold markets have been known to fall further.
- We compare the current technical conditions to the market bottom of October 2022.
The Weekly Market Monitor – Immaculate Disinflation, Spiking Yields, and the Waiting Continues
- Inflation Came down fast across Europe, yet bond yields continued to rally. We think markets are wrong on yields even though Italy and France have zero appetite to sustainably lower their budget deficits.
- We discuss falling consumer sentiment and the increasing parallel between current macro-consumer conditions and Q4 2018 when retail sales tumbled. Are we in for a rerun?
- Though not the mother of all stock market indices, several indices have dropped below their 200-day moving average, while the equally weighted S&P 500 Index has reversed all of this year’s gains.
Monitoring Global Central Bank Actions for Potential Clues
- Global central bank decisions and words have intended and unintended effects on the macro environment
- It is important to synthesize the direction and dispersion of global central bank actions for potential clues
- My global Central Bank Diffusion Indicator (gCBDI) offers a snapshot of the worldwide policy interest rate slant
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