In today’s briefing:
- This Is a ‘Frenzy’ Market, and the Rally Should End Now!
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Alfamart’s Take-Off, Siloam Hospitals, and Cinema XXI IPO.
- Japan Watch – Buy the JPY? >150 more likely than
- The Great Game – Kerch Bridge on fire!
- How Much Do Commodity Prices Rise when Fertilizer Prices Rise?
This Is a ‘Frenzy’ Market, and the Rally Should End Now!
- Our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index has been in the Frenzy territory for several weeks, indicating at least a temporary pullback in the stock markets. S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX).
- The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, the Equity Put/Call Ratio, the Relative Strength Index (RSI, the SKEW Index, and ETF and Mutual Fund Flows all push the index toward Frenzy.
- Together with slower economic momentum globally and pockets of elevated stock market valuation, like US tech stocks, downside looms.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Alfamart’s Take-Off, Siloam Hospitals, and Cinema XXI IPO.
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
- The past week saw inisghts on Sumber Alfaria Trijaya, Siloam International Hospitals, Bangkok Chain Hospital, and Bangkok Dusit Medical Services, Cinema XXI IPO, and Vale Indonesia (INCO).
- The were also macro insights on the Philippines and Malaysia plus a sector insights on regional plantations, and Indonesian digital banks, and Singapore ESG ratings.
Japan Watch – Buy the JPY? >150 more likely than
- The Japanese bubble of low-interest rates and inflation has been a hot topic throughout the whole Fed hiking cycle, as the ultra-loose monetary policy conducted in Japan leaves a textbook-like carry trade in shorting the Yen against basically every other currency with positive interest rates.
- With the recent rally in Yen and JGB yields, it might therefore be time to revisit the Asian islands to see if something has structurally changed, or if the Yen will remain the most shorted currency worldwide.
- If now is the time to load up on the Japanese currency, it could be one of the greatest trades for every PM and investor out there – as you say, the higher you have to climb, the further you have to fall.
The Great Game – Kerch Bridge on fire!
- On monday morning, the Kerch Bridge between mainland Russia and the Crimea was attacked yet again.
- Unlike former attack like the Nordstream strike, there is little doubt as to who did it as the Ukrainians are openly mocking the Russians.
- So – why attack the bridge again and what does it tell us about the war?
How Much Do Commodity Prices Rise when Fertilizer Prices Rise?
- Global crop production growth will mainly be driven by continued progress in plant breeding and a transition to more intensive production systems.
- Yield improvements are projected to account for 79% of global crop production growth, cropland expansion for 15%, and higher cropping intensity for 6% over the outlook period.
- Global growth of sugar consumption will be driven entirely by Africa and Asia, with demand projected to surge in areas where the level of per capita intake is currently low.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
