In today’s briefing:
- The Weekly Market Monitor (27) – Will the Bull Survive?
- CX Daily: Historic China Heat Wave Takes Toll on Lives and Crops
- AFC Iraq Fund June 2023 Update: “Construction Activity and Stability”
- Capital Gearing Trust Interview
- TPW Advisory Friday Musings: Digestion Time
The Weekly Market Monitor (27) – Will the Bull Survive?
- Our Fear & Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved into Frenzy territory aggressively, suggesting a pullback in equity markets is upon us.
- Based on the historical relationship between the ISM Manufacturing and the S&P 500 Index, the latest drop to 46 suggests an index level of 3,400.
- This week, we highlight the chart showing the change in the number of bankruptcies and the spread on US high-yield bonds. Where did spreads go?
CX Daily: Historic China Heat Wave Takes Toll on Lives and Crops
- Heat wave /: Historic China heat wave takes toll on lives and crops
- Hong Kong /: Hong Kong may lower the bar for top talent visas
- Funds /Chart of the Day: Chinese mutual funds reap rewards from AI, offshore investments
AFC Iraq Fund June 2023 Update: “Construction Activity and Stability”
- The AFC Iraq Fund, and the market, rebounded strongly in June.
- The AFC Iraq Fund was up 5.8%, outperforming its benchmark, the Rabee Securities RSISX USD Index, which was up 4.4%.
- For the year, the AFC Iraq Fund is up 38.6%, outperforming its benchmark’s 30.4% increase.
Capital Gearing Trust Interview
- In theory, government bonds are risk-free because they pay an income guaranteed by the government, but that doesn’t mean that prices can’t be volatile, as markets showed last year.
- To demonstrate this, I show the synthetic prices of UK Government bonds, known as Gilts, since 1990.
- The 2-year bond is relatively stable, with low “duration”, while the 30-year bond is a beast, with high duration.
TPW Advisory Friday Musings: Digestion Time
- There have been big moves a plenty in the 1st H of the year with Nasdaq having one of its best 1st Half’s ever, Japan & Brazil both gaining nearly 20% last Q while several of our favored Cyclical sectors enjoyed double digit gains last month.
- Elsewhere, Global Sov bond yields have risen back to levels last seen in 2008 while record breaking Mexican Peso strength & Yen weakness finally reversed a bit.
- Here’s one for the books – Brent crude oil has now declined for four quarters in a row, the longest such stretch in 35 years! We like energy for the 2ndH.
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