In today’s briefing:
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Matahari Dept Store Has Style, Bank Mandiri, and Astra Intl.
- Weekly Market Monitor (16) – The Odds of a Recession Is Rising; Earnings Just Don’t Know It Yet
- China Household
- Don’t Get Fooled by the Tight Inventory Narrative – Economic Situation Continues to Worsen
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Matahari Dept Store Has Style, Bank Mandiri, and Astra Intl.
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia
- The past week saw insights on Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ), Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ), Astra International (ASII IJ), and H2G Green in Singapore.
- There were also sector pieces on Indonesian infrastructure and Indonesian tobacco.
Weekly Market Monitor (16) – The Odds of a Recession Is Rising; Earnings Just Don’t Know It Yet
- ‘We lower the weight of equities. With markets pricing several Fed rate cuts, valuation rising, and earnings expectations too upbeat, catalysts for further increases are vanishing.
- After the significant decline in March building permits, the implied recession odds linked to this indicator are rising again.
- There’s a classic example of reverse operating leverage going on: earnings growth is negative, while sales growth is positive. Most of the time, this is followed by a recession.
China Household
- The YoY growth in China Retail sales was 10.60%, TSF lending grew at 15.70%, and New Loans to Households increased by 65.10%.
- Deposit growth was 12.68%. You look at the headline figures Individually; there is something for all versions of Bullish Reopening Narratives from the recent data.
- The onshore investor has participated in the reopening theme and unwinding, but the Foreign Investor seems to believe more than the locals and continues to get more invested.
Don’t Get Fooled by the Tight Inventory Narrative – Economic Situation Continues to Worsen
- Don’t get fooled by the tight inventory narrative While many copper bulls continue to write about the low copper inventories I would like to inform you once again that there is simply no correlation between copper inventories and the price of the industrial metal.
- If you want to be precise – you could even make the case that excessive lows in the LME copper inventory data actually mark cyclical highs in the price of the brownish metal.
- US Leading Economic Index’s recession signal deepens in March, Conference Board reports: “The US LEI fell to its lowest level since November of 2020, consistent with worsening economic conditions ahead,” says CB’s senior manager for business cycle indicators.
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