In today’s briefing:
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Bukalapak’s Take Rates, Indonesia’s Digital Banks, and PTTEP
- EM Asian Resilience: A Global Recession Does Not Seem Likely To Stifle Asian Growth
- August Market Thinking
- US Treasuries & Post NFP Thoughts
- The Commodity Report #63
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Bukalapak’s Take Rates, Indonesia’s Digital Banks, and PTTEP
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
- The past week saw insights on Bukalapak post 2Q numbers, PTT E&P (PTTEP TB), Synnex Thailand (SYNEX TB) and Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services (BAFS TB).
- There was also an insight on Indonesian Digital Banks, with much excitement around the space as major players start to draw on their respective ecosystems. We search for potential winners.
EM Asian Resilience: A Global Recession Does Not Seem Likely To Stifle Asian Growth
- The red-hot jobs market and rising capital goods orders in the US point to a disconnect between such bottom-up figures and the GDP advance estimates.
- The latest PMI figures point to a sprightly recovery across ASEAN that still has legs, powered by domestic demand with the easing of curbs and the accumulation of excess savings.
- There are two key risks – 1) China’s economic woes that predate Covid-19, and 2) harsh tightening by central banks that slows growth much more than intended.
August Market Thinking
- Markets are asking the same question as bored children stuck in a long delay at Dover “Are we there yet?”
- The second half of July saw yet another bear market rally and while we are not sure we are ‘there’, this one does look the most convincing to date in terms of putting in some sort of market low.
- Some of our ‘softer’ indicators, like Retail sentiment, Google word counts on topics like Bear market (down from index of 100 in June to 14 now) as well as opposite searches for terms like ‘new bull market’ (up from 16 to 94) are clearly more optimistic.
US Treasuries & Post NFP Thoughts
- US Treasuries may still be on the way up [in price]
- The most interesting development is the fall in the Oil price as WTI takes out key levels
- The price action on yields is so far no different to a month ago from where yields started to fall again after a strong NFP number. Equities may also benefit
The Commodity Report #63
- Let me be clear, as we can measure the net money market liquidity, we can also see that there was a slight pickup in available funds over the last few weeks.
- This is inconsistent with the FED policy and its goal to tighten financial conditions.
- This fact was also IMO THE driving factor that drove markets higher over the last weeks as well.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
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