In today’s briefing:
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Astra International, Bukalapak, and Bank Negara Indonesia
- Tectonic Macro Shifts
- The week at a glance: A couple of central bank surprises on the cards?
- -30% // Cocoa Bubble Has Busted & Central Banks Buy Gold
- Malaysia Economics: Public Wage Hikes Not Just a Populist Gimmick
- Energy Cable: Saudis are pushing hard for a new oil bull market
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Astra International, Bukalapak, and Bank Negara Indonesia
- The past week saw insights on Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ), Bukalapak,Astra International,Siloam International Hospitals, Bumrungrad Hospital, Multi Bintang Indonesia, Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN).
- There were also macro insights on Indonesia and Vietnam, and a sector insight on Indonesian banks, and a further insight on Sheng Siong (SSG SP).
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.
Tectonic Macro Shifts
”Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.”
With this sentence, the Fed announced the tapering of their QT program last week.
The Federal Reserve has been running QT (Quantitative Tightening) since mid-2022: this process is aimed at unwinding the multi-trillion Fed bond holdings accumulated during previous QE episodes
The week at a glance: A couple of central bank surprises on the cards?
- Everything you need to know about the key figures in the week ahead and how we trade them.
- This week we focus on the BoE, the Riksbank, Norwegian CPI numbers and Japanese wage-flation.
- Markets see August as the most likely timing for a cut from the Bank of England and as the March inflation report surprised on the high side of consensus, the services inflation still runs at a 0.4-0.5% MoM pace adjusted for seasonality.
-30% // Cocoa Bubble Has Busted & Central Banks Buy Gold
- -30% // Cocoa Bubble Has Busted Just two weeks ago, the most-active contract hit a record of almost $12,000 a ton as the industry grappled with the fallout of severe supply shortages.
- “It’s important to underscore that the recent downturn in cocoa prices is primarily a result of trading maneuvers, not a realignment of market fundamentals,” analysts at Fitch Solutions’ BMI unit said in a note, adding they expect volatility to persist.
- Volatility spiked as bigger margin requirements spurred traders to close out positions, helping to drive aggregate open interest in cocoa futures to the lowest in more than a decade.
Malaysia Economics: Public Wage Hikes Not Just a Populist Gimmick
- Malaysia’s government announced intentions to hike civil servant salaries by 13% beginning in December 2024. The fiscal impact, we opine, is largely manageable.
- There are political motivations behind this move; the unity government coalition will be hoping to win brownie points among the Malay-majority civil servant electorate.
- But this move should not be viewed merely as a populist gimmick, the hikes should be seen as responding to the needs of broader civil service reforms.
Energy Cable: Saudis are pushing hard for a new oil bull market
- Freight rates are rising again and it will likely impact USD inflation in Q2 already.
- The Saudis are trying to bring back the oil bulls via keeping the market tight. ‘
- Our models are close to entering a long oil bet again..
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
