In today’s briefing:
- The Ongoing Inflation Debate
- The Weekly Market Monitor – Recession Strikes the Most Accommodative Economy, Bitcoin Shines!
- UK: Retail Returns to Reality in Jan-24
- CX Daily: Louboutin’s Famous Red Sole Heels Tread Winding Path to Trademark Protection in China
- Philippines Policy Rate 6.5% (consensus 6.5%) in Feb-24
The Ongoing Inflation Debate
- The firmer than anticipated January CPI print, including the gap between CPI and PCE inflation, introduces confusion and anxiety to financial markets
- But my Inflation Momentum Indicator and Most Persistent CPI inflation estimate offer an alternative read on the data
- The ongoing debate on the current and future level of underlying inflation is more crucial to policymakers
The Weekly Market Monitor – Recession Strikes the Most Accommodative Economy, Bitcoin Shines!
- Ironically, the country with the central bank that refuses to tighten extremely loose monetary policy has hit a recession first. Congrats Japan!
- Bitcoin has breached the USD 1 billion threshold again. The reason is that US spot ETFs must buy every bitcoin available to meet demand. Investors are extremely hungry for digital gold!
- And my bellwether global earnings indicator points to positive earnings growth for the first time in a long time.
UK: Retail Returns to Reality in Jan-24
- UK retail sales fully recovered in Jan-24 from their Dec-23 crash, like we forecast. However, the 3.4% surge was double the consensus expectation.
- We had branded the previous fall as a false trend break and identified it as a seasonal adjustment issue around Black Friday rather than a fundamental problem.
- Trading between October and January was the best since 2015, with NSA and SA data back in agreement. GDP will also enjoy payback from this spurious volatility.
CX Daily: Louboutin’s Famous Red Sole Heels Tread Winding Path to Trademark Protection in China
- Red-soled shoes / In Depth: Louboutin’s famous red sole heels tread winding path to trademark protection in China
Taiwan /: Beijing condemns Taiwan for deaths of mainland fishermen
- Investment /Private sector is increasingly driving Chinese investments in Africa, veteran banker says
Philippines Policy Rate 6.5% (consensus 6.5%) in Feb-24
- The BSP’s decision to hold the policy rate at 6.5% is informed by an improved inflation forecast for 2024 and stable expectations for 2025, reflecting a period of cautious optimism and strategic pause in policy adjustments.
- Upside risks to inflation, notably from transport, electricity, and potential food price increases due to El Niño, are balanced by targeted government interventions, emphasizing the synergy between monetary and fiscal measures in managing inflation.
- The Monetary Board’s ongoing assessment of economic growth and inflation dynamics supports a vigilant yet flexible approach to future policy decisions, ensuring readiness to adjust monetary settings in alignment with its price stability mandate.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
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