Daily Brief Macro: The New Year Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - MrDIY and more

In today’s briefing:

The New Year Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – MrDIY, Dynasty Ceramic, and Bank Mandiri’s Livin’
What Will Drive China Recovery?
The Commodity Report #84

The New Year Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – MrDIY, Dynasty Ceramic, and Bank Mandiri’s Livin’

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
The week between Christmas and New Year saw nights on MR D.I.Y. Group, Dynasty Ceramic, Adi Sarana Armada, Sumber Alfaria Trijaya, Bank Negara Indonesia and Bank Mandiri.
There were also insights on Blibli and the LQ45 rebalancing in Indoneau, which will likely see some interesting additions including Saratoga Investama, Mitratel, and Adaro Minerals.

Well, we won’t know until later Q1, 2023. I don’t share the complete confidence that the Sell Side consensus, we are in for the “China is Roaring Back” narrative.
With no transparency of Omicron spread, severe cases, fatalities, and genome sequencing, the current wave predictions are nothing short of “I believe it will boom” because it will.
The reopening was going to be hamstrung by the initial spread surge, given the sudden U-turn in policy and unpreparedness.

What a year it was for European energy prices. Every time it gets emotional, prices behave volatile and sometimes also irrationally.
That was the reason why we called for a peak in European energy prices already back in August of 2022.
Back then, prices were astronomically high. Per BTU, you had to pay $93 for US crude oil, $500 for European TTF natgas, and meanwhile, “only” $54 for US Henry Hub natgas for the forward futures contract.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network