In today’s briefing:
- The Most Important Question For Equity Investors: What to Expect in Global Fixed Income in 2023?
- Active China Funds: Top-Down Positioning Update, 2023
- Going for Gold
- The Commodity Report #88
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma -Bank Central Asia, Bank Negara Indonesia, and Central Retail.
The Most Important Question For Equity Investors: What to Expect in Global Fixed Income in 2023?
- 2023 will prove far better for most investors. Although the major World stock and bond indexes will range sideways, several national markets and sectors will perform strongly
- Behind our optimism is an expansion the all-important Global Liquidity cycle from last October. This is driven by the People’s Bank of China and paced by the US Federal Reserve
- World fixed income markets are exhibiting a ‘normal’, not the distorted cycle many claim. Coming months should see skidding bond market volatility and the beginning of yield curve steepening
Active China Funds: Top-Down Positioning Update, 2023
- Active funds head in to 2023 overweight Industrials and Staples versus underweight Financials and Communication Services
- Energy stocks are still only owned by 51% of funds yet captured the largest increase in ownership through 2022.
- China Banks are a key underweight. Only 11% of funds are positioned ahead of the iShares MSCI China ETF benchmark. Airlines, Casinos/Gaming and Airfreight/Couriers were the winners in 2022.
Going for Gold
- With stocks up while the dollar is down, 2023 continues to surprise.
- It was supposed to be the great recession, but the market says otherwise.
- That is one of the confusions around gold. In this week’s Atlas Pulse, I compared the bull vs bear arguments.
The Commodity Report #88
- The general market consensus going into the new year was that commodity prices would continue to correct.
- We also positioned ourselves in this camp, as we predicted the turnaround story a few months later.
- While some commodities such as wheat or natural gas (both commodities that had been priced in a risk bonus for a long time due to the Ukraine war) fell sharply, other commodities such as corn, soybeans, orange juice, or soybean meal remain not far from their highs.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma -Bank Central Asia, Bank Negara Indonesia, and Central Retail.
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
- The past week saw insights on Bank Central Asia, Bank Negara Indonesia, Central Retail Corp, Comfortdelgro Cor, Sea Ltd, and Thai Banks.
- We also saw insights on One Enterprise and Ramkhamhaeng Hospital also two pieces on the Thai Economy plus insights from Brian Freitas on Index rebalancing in Indonesia and the Philippines.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
