In today’s briefing:
- The Land of Swaying Yen: Will The BoJ Intervene? How Will Yen Respond?
- Asia Geopolitics: Following Biden-Xi Meeting, Asia Is a Safer Place For Now
- Taiwan: Underowned, Yet Gaining on Peers
- US Rates Nugget: 4 Charts on Why November Data Will Reignite the Hawks
- Malaysia Economics: What Has the Anwar Administration Achieved in One Year?
- Great Game – Truce in Gaza?
The Land of Swaying Yen: Will The BoJ Intervene? How Will Yen Respond?
- Japan faces a raft of economic headwinds which shows up in Yen’s underperformance. BoJ’s job is not one to be envied given near-term issues plus structural challenges.
- Since the start of Sep, the Yen has underperformed the most among currency majors declining to a 33-year low relative to the USD.
- A frail outlook warrants continued loose monetary policy. However, that creates other problems forcing BoJ intervention to support the Yen.
Asia Geopolitics: Following Biden-Xi Meeting, Asia Is a Safer Place For Now
- The Biden-Xi meeting signals a positive phase for lower geopolitical risks in the Asia Pacific. Beijing and Washington are prioritising handling its domestic challenges over ratcheting up competitive activity.
- Taiwan’s presidential polls also motivate China’s “wait-and-see” approach as the Sinoskeptic DPP faces headwinds in maintaining its grip on power.
- Japan’s more nuanced strategy has gained it traction with Asian nations. It is why it is emerging as a real winner in the geo-political game in Asia.
Taiwan: Underowned, Yet Gaining on Peers
- The percentage of Global funds invested in Taiwan hits an all-time high of 57.8%.
- Taiwan has been a key beneficiary of manager rotation alongside India, Argentina and South Korea over the last 6-months.
- TSMC is the dominant stock holding, with 49.8% of funds holding a position and has hit record ownership among Global funds.
US Rates Nugget: 4 Charts on Why November Data Will Reignite the Hawks
- Welcome to this US rates nugget with three charts on why November data from the US economy could refuel the hawkish bias within the Federal Reserve.
- First, our ISM Services model hints at a large rebound in the ISM number released on December 5.
- ISM Services jumps to >60 in our models when you adjust for the spreadsheet wizardry of the Institute of Supply Management (remember the abysmal prints in Nov/Dec of 2022) as the seasonal adjustment factors are much more helpful than a year ago.
Malaysia Economics: What Has the Anwar Administration Achieved in One Year?
- Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim marks a year in office after the dramatic events surrounding the 2022 election. We argue that his government deserves a decent grade.
- On both short-term fiscal issues and long-run growth, there are promising signs that the government is getting to grips with tackling the sources of Malaysia’s economic woes.
- Foreign policy will remain focused on balancing Malaysia’s interests amidst intensified US-China competition, using economic diplomacy to bolster its industrial ambitions.
Great Game – Truce in Gaza?
- The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas is nearing a potential turning point, as Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh, in a statement to Reuters, indicated that the Palestinian militant group is on the brink of a truce agreement with Israel.
- The negotiations, which are being mediated by Qatar, are primarily focused on key issues such as the duration of the truce, the mechanisms for aid delivery into Gaza, and a crucial exchange involving Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.
- What do we know?
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
