In today’s briefing:
- Thailand: Government Shows Early Signs of Impotence
- Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX
- CX Daily: The Miracle and Mirage of Weight Loss Drugs
- Great Game – 3 Key Predictions for the Ukraine War in 2024
- Inventory Nugget – How Are World Inventories in Metals and Grains Looking?
Thailand: Government Shows Early Signs of Impotence
- The cyclical outlook for Thailand remains mixed despite the formation of the government. Signs of policy impotence are emerging, limiting the administration’s ability to respond.
- The messy implementation of Pheu Thai’s flagship digital wallet is but one sign of policy paralysis. The pro-Thaksin party is stuck in myopic populism to prop up its support.
- The unwieldy composition of the coalition means that hopes for economic and political reform are unlikely to be met. Economic upsides from political stability are thus limited.
Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX
- With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.
- In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.
- In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.
CX Daily: The Miracle and Mirage of Weight Loss Drugs
- Drugs / Cover Story: The miracle and mirage of weight loss drugs
Expo /: U.S. Agriculture Department to debut at China’s largest import fair
Corruption /: Former ICBC vice president under investigation for suspected corruption
Great Game – 3 Key Predictions for the Ukraine War in 2024
- It’s finally time to turn our eyes back to Ukraine in this series – and we have a lot to talk about! Will Ukraine hold presidential elections next year and what about that Zaluzhny interview?
- The Ukrainian summer offensive has been an almost complete failure with very few advances made.
- General Zaluzhny – the Ukrainian commander-in-chief – admitted as much in a recent interview with the Economist and asked for a reversed strategy – more on that later.
Inventory Nugget – How Are World Inventories in Metals and Grains Looking?
- Welcome to another one of our short nuggets, where it’s all about the charts and short conclusions! Today we will briefly dig into the world of commodity inventories, which despite tightness doesn’t seem to matter unless demand surprises positively to the upside.
- Something tells us that’s exactly what’s gonna happen.
- We will mainly focus on industrial metals and grains, whereas energy inventories will be covered in our weekly Energy Cable / EIA Watch.
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