In today’s briefing:
- Steno Signals #69 – The recession playbook
- Positioning Watch: Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – GoTo Initiatives, Ramayana Lestari, and Indonesia Strategy.
- Macro Nugget: Is the UK Prepared for the Winter?
- Labor Watch – Running through the anomalies in the labor market
Steno Signals #69 – The recession playbook
- We have now formalized our recession call for Q1-2024 (in the US) as we have patiently waited all year and called for better than feared performance in the US economy.
- Interestingly, we see a diverging path for Manufacturing and Services ahead short-term, which will likely wrongfoot many economists and traders.
- Manufacturing is currently restocking, while services are on the decline.
Positioning Watch: Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War
- Chinese stimulus, US CPI, and Gaza Bombardment now likely turning into a land invasion.
- Plenty of events to digest in the scope of one week! Which of course leaves us with the question we attempt to answer every Saturday: How are markets positioned?
- But before diving into that, we think it prudent to act with some context to the nature of the situation that markets have to digest
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – GoTo Initiatives, Ramayana Lestari, and Indonesia Strategy.
- The past week saw insights on GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ), Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (RALS IJ), Pakuwon Jati (PWON IJ), CP FOODS (CPF TB), and Thai Credit Bank IPO.
- The was also a strategy piece on Indonesia as the pre-election jostling heats up and a macro insight on Thailand after the new PM’s maiden policy speech, which was underwhelming.
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.
Macro Nugget: Is the UK Prepared for the Winter?
- We have recently witnessed a minor surprise in both Swedish and US inflation rates.
- With the UK next in line, it seems appropriate to take a brief look at the state of the UK economy.
- To put it bluntly, there’s no easy way to spin it—things are looking rather bleak.
Labor Watch – Running through the anomalies in the labor market
- The last NFP report caught markets’ attention with payroll data beating expectations massively on the upside, shuffling Fed pricing and showcasing a labor market that is far from done.
- The labor market is not exactly the easiest part of the economy to grasp, as you need to aggregate multiple different surveys and data points from different sources, which sometimes can diverge greatly from each other, leaving us with the job of pointing out the correct data from the other.
- We’ll try our best to do that today.
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