In today’s briefing:
- Steno Signals #65 – The 4 things that worries me the most in global macro right now
- A Unique High-Frequency Indicator of Recessions
- ECB Cranks Up for The Record Tenth Time; Yet the Euro Looks Weak and Wobbly
- From Digital Highways to Energy Pathways: The New Era of Infrastructure Investments
- Singapore Economics: Structural Growth Model Needs a Revamp
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Bank Negara Indonesia, XL Axiata Leading Data, and VNG.
- Central Bank Watch: 5 charts on the Central Bank bonanza week!
- Asian Geopolitics: The Next Phase in the Asian Geopolitical Contest
Steno Signals #65 – The 4 things that worries me the most in global macro right now
- I have four major worries around the current macro setup. The long consensus in bond positioning is worrisome paired with rising energy prices
- The lack of reliability of recession forecasts and the relationship to Manufacturing
- Germany being a nation-wide Nokia case despite falling input prices
A Unique High-Frequency Indicator of Recessions
- The current US recession debate, while seemingly dormant, is arguably unsettled and undeniably intricate
- And US recessions tend to be accompanied by periods of subpar growth in many other economies around the world
- Hence, it is crucial to track and assess the risks attending the US economy by harnessing the proprietary weekly Recession Odds (weRO) indicator
ECB Cranks Up for The Record Tenth Time; Yet the Euro Looks Weak and Wobbly
- Currencies desire nothing more than higher rates. The Euro should have popped but instead it flopped after ECB’s rate hiking decision last Thursday.
- For nine straight weeks, Euro has lost ground to the USD despite ten rate hikes collectively amounting to 450 basis points over the last 12 months.
- Rates at record levels combined with macro weakness, ECB will be cornered at the Dec meeting and be forced to pause or cut rates.
From Digital Highways to Energy Pathways: The New Era of Infrastructure Investments
- In a world shaped by geopolitical risks, infrastructure investments are pivoting to address energy supply vulnerabilities illuminated by global tensions.
- As the pandemic accelerated digital transformation, the pressing demand for enhanced digital infrastructure, from data centers to renewable energy integrations, becomes evident.
- Concurrently, the sector confronts financing challenges, emphasizing the need for sustainable projects that align with a low-carbon future.
Singapore Economics: Structural Growth Model Needs a Revamp
- Singapore’s model as a dynamic, external-oriented economy has served it well through internal and external challenges, but there are signs that this has run its natural course.
- Global economic bifurcation, external volatility, and a more competitive market mean that the city-state faces new challenges that warrant shifts in economic strategy.
- There is thus a need to revisit the old economic playbook. The upcoming Forward Singapore strategy will provide hints as to whether the needed shifts are forthcoming.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Bank Negara Indonesia, XL Axiata Leading Data, and VNG.
- The past week saw insights on Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ), XL Axiata (EXCL IJ), Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP), and VNG (VinaGame) (VNG US) IPO
- There was also a macro insight on Singapore, a screen on Indonesian banks, and a piece looking at the increasing importance of sustainability in Singapore.
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South-East Asia.
Central Bank Watch: 5 charts on the Central Bank bonanza week!
- It is a big central bank week with the FOMC meeting concluding on Wednesday, while four of the bigger European central banks report/decide on Thursday.
- US: Can the Fed pause with accelerating inflation?
- Nothing is priced for this meeting but we expect the updated projections to include another hike in the modal outcome from the FOMC members.
Asian Geopolitics: The Next Phase in the Asian Geopolitical Contest
- Major movements by Vietnam in closer security ties with Washington and hawkishness in Indian foreign policy mean that China is further disadvantaged in its regional theatre.
- Turnover in Beijing’s top tier of foreign policy officials and the weak economic recovery imply the need for policymakers to avoid risky gambits and keep their own house in order.
- China will recalibrate its foreign policy strategy, including alliance-building activities and economic carrots. India and ASEAN will also adjust their responses based on their needs.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
