In today’s briefing:
- Steno Signals #56 – The Business Cycle that Everyone Misunderstood! Here Is Why..,
- Inflation Watch: Last Chance Saloon for the Easy Disinflation – Watch Series
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – TOA’s Troubles, Indonesian Brewing, and Sido Muncul
- Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? // The Big Sugar Rush
Steno Signals #56 – The Business Cycle that Everyone Misunderstood! Here Is Why..,
- Positioning and price patterns reveal that the pain trade is higher rates- and higher equities, while the recession is slowly but surely being called off by the consensus. Here are four reasons why everyone misunderstood the recession risk and why it is still alive…
- The pain trade is higher rates AND equities now
- It’s been a tough week for those hoping for an actual summer lull in markets as the pain trade has shifted from being equities moving higher to rates moving higher.
Inflation Watch: Last Chance Saloon for the Easy Disinflation – Watch Series
- The June CPI report (released on Wednesday) is the final easily disinflationary report before base-effects start working against the trend for almost a quarter. Here is our chart-package on how things are going to play out..
- Welcome to our chart-pack on US inflation ahead of the all-important release of the June CPI report on Wednesday.
- It is last chance saloon for the disinflationistas as the base effects will turn harder to beat in the coming months but we see a good chance of an inflation surprise below the 3% handle in headline terms, which should provide us with a decent exit liquidity in long duration proxies in both bonds and equities in case.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – TOA’s Troubles, Indonesian Brewing, and Sido Muncul
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
- The past week saw insights on TOA Paint (Thailand), Sido Muncul,Multi Bintang Indonesia, Delta Djakarta, Metro Pacific Investments Co, Amman Mineral Internasional, V.S. Industry, and Top Glove Corp.
- There was also a thematic insight looking at Indonesian Consumers post the Jakarta Fair plus an insight looking at the ASEAN EV ecosystem.
Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? // The Big Sugar Rush
- Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? In last week’s report, we already highlighted that the golden metal stays unattractive – as the Fed will likely do more rate hikes.
- The, in some parts, stronger-than-expected job market data we received last week confirmed that view once again.
- We find it interesting that gold hasn’t shown more weakness yet – even as rates continue to rise again.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
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