In today’s briefing:
- Steno Signals #122 – Markets have abandoned the cutting narrative (outside of EZ)
- CX Daily: China Tries New Tack to Spur Economic Growth Through Stimulus Effort
- Mexico: More Institutional Changes in the Pipeline
- The week at a Glance – The cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry
- Actinver Research – Lower Housing Prices Will Result in Margin Contractions (3Q24 Preview)
- Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/JPY – September 27, 2024
Steno Signals #122 – Markets have abandoned the cutting narrative (outside of EZ)
- Morning from Copenhagen, I spent my Sunday evening in the company of Interpol (the band, not the police, doh!), allowing myself a day off for once after the big announcements we made last week.
- As a result, Steno Signals was released this Monday morning instead.
- The recent repricing of EUR rates versus peers is extremely interesting, as the ECB is suddenly considered the only G3 central bank with a feasible path to 50bp cuts.
CX Daily: China Tries New Tack to Spur Economic Growth Through Stimulus Effort
- Stimulus / Cover Story: China tries new tack to spur economic growth through stimulus effort
High-speed railway /: The view from Indonesia’s China-built high-speed railway, one year on
Export /Caixin explains: China’s new export controls and how they will work
Mexico: More Institutional Changes in the Pipeline
- Morena’s political dominance has strengthened with Claudia Sheinbaum’s election and judicial reforms, allowing them to shape the Supreme Court.
- This boosts their ability to push controversial policies, like state control of Mexico’s energy sector.
- However, economic slowdown and potential U.S. political shifts, such as a Trump victory, could dampen investor confidence and derail nearshoring momentum by 2025.
The week at a Glance – The cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry
- Happy Monday from Copenhagen.
- Our nowcasts of the US economy have proven useful in predicting the direction of incoming macro releases over the past couple of months, accurately capturing both the downtrend in July and the subsequent strength observed throughout September and October relative to expectations.
- The US economy is performing much better than feared at the moment, resulting in stronger equities, higher rates, and a stronger USD.
Actinver Research – Lower Housing Prices Will Result in Margin Contractions (3Q24 Preview)
- In the Mexican housing sector, total sales will continue with their positive trend; however, a mix oriented to the affordable segment and lower land sales will result in margin contractions.
- The sector’s total sales will advance 8%, supported by higher volume sales.
- In contrast, the sector’s EBITDA is expected to gain 3%, mainly explained by a sales mix oriented to houses with lower prices.
Comment on Exchange Rate EUR/JPY – September 27, 2024
- During the period under consideration, i.e. August 28th, 2024 to September 27th, 2024, the EUR/JPY exchange rate fluctuated between 155.97 and 162.63.
- The MA-10 line was moving above the MA-20 line for the first week, and then it crossed below the MA-20, maintaining a steady downward movement until it crossed over it again on September 26th MA-20 line retained an immovable declining trend throughout the entire period.
- Based on Graph 2, the CCI (red line) was moving in a descending trend at the beginning of the period under consideration but after September 6th the movement changed to the opposite direction, reaching the price of 100 and ending up slightly above the 50 level.
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