In today’s briefing:
- Steno Signals #110: Run for the hills? Not so fast..
- Oil Rig Uptick Boosts US Total Rig Count
- Commodity Popcorn Markets // Coffee Bubble About To Burst?
- The Week That Was InASEAN@Smartkarma – Thai Beverage, Matahari Department Store, and ROTI Baking
- UK Fiscal Hole Reeves-ealed
Steno Signals #110: Run for the hills? Not so fast..
- Happy Sunday from Copenhagen! My apologies for the slightly later release of the Steno Signals Sunday editorial.
- We are in the process of moving, making Sundays a work-at-home day instead of a woke-from-home day!It’s been a tricky few weeks for high-beta risk assets, and with high-level voices such as Bill Dudley calling for imminent rate cuts, we are at the stage of the cycle where many people are getting scared of the equity/high-beta momentum.
- It is admittedly true that “cyclicals” have front-run a re-ignition of economic momentum to an extent that speaks in favor of a rotation in equity markets.
Oil Rig Uptick Boosts US Total Rig Count
- US oil and gas rig count increased by three to 589 for the week ending 26/Jul, rising for the second consecutive week.
- US oil rig count rose by 5 to 482, marking the first increase since May. Gas rigs fell by 2 to 101, following a rise of 3 the previous week.
- In July, the total US rig count increased by 8, the first monthly rise since February and the largest since November 2022.
Commodity Popcorn Markets // Coffee Bubble About To Burst?
- Commodity Popcorn Markets During the week, I saw a tweet by the legendary commodities trader Peter Brandt.
- The technical part of Kucrop Analytics institutional commodity research arm is heavily influenced by Peter Brands Research, as well as Larry Williams Research.
Both look at markets very different and have a strong track record.
The Week That Was InASEAN@Smartkarma – Thai Beverage, Matahari Department Store, and ROTI Baking
- The past week saw insights on Thai Beverage (THBEV SP),Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ), Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ, Yeo Hiap Seng, and Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN).
- There was also a macro insight on the Malaysian economy, an ESG-focused insight on Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) and an index rebalance on the LQ45.
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.
UK Fiscal Hole Reeves-ealed
- The new UK Chancellor has revealed a £22bn fiscal hole in plans for the current year. Only a quarter of that cost is loosely covered by freshly announced cuts.
- Over half of the cost reflects enormous public sector pay increases that the government chose to accept. Budget announcements on 30 October should pay for some of that.
- Looser fiscal policy and bumper pay settlements warrant relatively tighter monetary policy. However, the policy rate impact will prove more significant in 2025.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
