In today’s briefing:
- Steno Signals #106 – The cycle is improving. Not weakening.
- Berkshire’s Bullish Bet on Occidental Fails to Sway Market Sentiments
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Grab’s Lead, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, and CLEO’s Pure Water
- Energy Cable: Increases in freight rates not transferring into goods inflation (for now)
- HEM: Doves Stay the Course
Steno Signals #106 – The cycle is improving. Not weakening.
- We spent most of last week examining cycle leads and lags as we continue to observe solid signs of re-acceleration in economies with low duration profiles and high sensitivities to interest rates and exports.
- The Riksbank in Sweden, the BoC in Canada, and partially the ECB in Europe have all cut interest rates amidst an already improving cyclical environment.
- We are already starting to see the positive ripple effects.
Berkshire’s Bullish Bet on Occidental Fails to Sway Market Sentiments
- Occidental trades at higher PE and PB valuations than Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies, and BP. European oil majors are cheaper than American peers.
- Occidental has been the Permian Basin’s leading oil and gas producer for the past five years.
- Occidental expects to close the USD 12 billion CrownRock acquisition by August. The deal is anticipated to boost its oil output by 170k bpd.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Grab’s Lead, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, and CLEO’s Pure Water
- The past week saw insights on Grab Holdings (GRAB US), Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ), Sariguna Primatirta (CLEO IJ), PT Metrodata Electronics (MTDL IJ), and Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ).
- There were also macro insights on inflation in the Philippines and Malaysia and further insights On Best World International (BEST SP), Ecocare Indo Pasifik (HYGN IJ) and Malaysia Airports Holdings.
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.
Energy Cable: Increases in freight rates not transferring into goods inflation (for now)
- Greetings from Copenhagen! We’ll take a look at freight rates, copper, and crude from an inflation angle.
- But before we do that, let’s have a quick look at Henry Hub.
- The front-month Henry Hub natural gas prices continue to face downward pressure, primarily influenced by an abundance in gas stock levels.
HEM: Doves Stay the Course
- The Bank of England appears eager to implement a rate cut in August, which some view as overly dovish.
- The European Central Bank’s potential rate cut in September is contingent on the Federal Reserve initiating their cut at the same time.
- There is a risk of inflating economic bubbles due to premature stimulus, similar to the situation in 1998. Additionally, the excessive growth in labour costs is being underestimated.
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