In today’s briefing:
- Spot BTC ETFs Attract $4.3 Billion on Day 1 Paving the Way for Institutional Adoption
- Singapore Economics: On Track for A Robust Recovery in 2024
- Regional Economics: Asia’s Manufacturing Ended 2023 on a Weak Note
- Portfolio Watch: Peak Dovishness & more liquidity?
- Taiwan: Election Likely to Deliver a Hung Legislature, Constraining DPP’s Autonomy
- UK CPI Watch: Another milder than usual report
Spot BTC ETFs Attract $4.3 Billion on Day 1 Paving the Way for Institutional Adoption
- SEC narrowly approves listing of spot Bitcoin ETF citing high correlation between CME futures and spot bitcoin price and adequacy of CME surveillance sharing.
- New ETFs offer highly competitive expense ratios. ETFs also offer discount to expense ratio during a discount period.
- ETFs see strong trading activity on day 1 but much of it likely came from outflows from GBTC to lower cost ETFs.
Singapore Economics: On Track for A Robust Recovery in 2024
- Singapore’s 4Q23 GDP showed convincing signs of recovery, with the manufacturing sector returning to growth after a trade-induced slump for most of the year.
- The city-state will also benefit from positive spillovers from growth in other markets in the region via stronger FDI inflows, international trade, and tourism activity.
- The recent developments give us confidence that the Singaporean economy can outperform consensus expectations in 2024, even if structural worries remain.
Regional Economics: Asia’s Manufacturing Ended 2023 on a Weak Note
- Manufacturing sectors in Southeast Asia remained in overall contraction in December 2023 due to still-sluggish export sales, but signs of bottoming out remain visible.
- Firms’ outlook for future production, however, remains positive due to expectations of a recovery. Continued hiring and purchasing activity back this up.
- Resilient domestic conditions will underpin growth in the new year, even if the recovery in international trade remains fitful and uncertain.
Portfolio Watch: Peak Dovishness & more liquidity?
- The speed at which financial market narratives shift nowadays never ceases to amaze us.
- Last quarter saw a notable drop in inflation expectations, but now, we’re observing supply chain disruptions and escalating geopolitical risks pushing oil prices higher, potentially reversing that entire trend.
- The effect of these recent developments on the market and their continued impact on the economy is still unclear.
Taiwan: Election Likely to Deliver a Hung Legislature, Constraining DPP’s Autonomy
- Today’s election is likely to result in a narrow win for the DPP’s Lai Ching-te, but with a hung legislature, requiring the DPP to form a coalition with Ko’s TPP.
- This outcome would be positive for markets, as it would circumscribe Lai’s ability to openly advocate independence. Unlike Chen (2000-08), he would not be hemmed in by the KMT ascendant.
- If the KMT’s Hou (also native Taiwanese) wins, he would face not only a hung parliament, but also dissension within the party. After initial euphoria, this would be market-negative.
UK CPI Watch: Another milder than usual report
- Greetings from Europe! We had the US CPI report smack dab at our forecast yesterday again and based on public demand here is our UK preview for next Wednesday.
- December inflation is typically fairly hot in core terms in the UK as especially services increase ahead of the holiday season.
- Services increased >0.8% MoM in December 2022, making it “easy” to deliver Services disinflation on a yearly basis in December 2023.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
