In today’s briefing:
- Spoiler Alert: Global Macro Data Is Tilting the Wrong Way
- China’s Gold Buying Spree Stretches Into Sixth Straight Month
- CX Daily: Hong Kong Targets Young Talent, Tech Sector in Post-Covid Push
- EA: Inflation’s Apr-23 Uptick Finalised
Spoiler Alert: Global Macro Data Is Tilting the Wrong Way
- The latest Empire State Manufacturing Index points to an ISM Manufacturing Index of 42.5, a recession, and lower stock markets.
- China’s reopening is driven by less than half of its economy, consumers. Production, Property, and Financing are lagging.
- Germany – Waiting for a recession? It’s already in one.
China’s Gold Buying Spree Stretches Into Sixth Straight Month
- China expanded its gold reserves in April for a sixth straight month as global central banks add to their bullion holdings as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks.
- China’s gold reserves increased by 8.09 tons in April, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.
- Total gold stockpiles reached 2,076 tons after the nation added 120 tons in the five months through March.
CX Daily: Hong Kong Targets Young Talent, Tech Sector in Post-Covid Push
- Hong Kong /In Depth: Hong Kong targets young talent, tech sector in post-Covid push
- Soccer /: Accused of bribery, South Korean soccer star detained in China
- Talk show /Trending in China: Chinese comedian canceled for PLA pun
EA: Inflation’s Apr-23 Uptick Finalised
- The final EA HICP inflation print confirmed the 0.1pp rise to 7.0% in Apr-23, while the ex-tobacco rate printed at 6.98%. Food price inflation has reassuringly subsided.
- Underlying inflation’s impulse remains 2-3 times the target in Germany and France, but the trend is slowing, which should eventually create space for the ECB to stop hiking.
- It’s too early to declare victory over inflation, so we expect the ECB to hike at least twice more this cycle and not cut until the second half of 2024.
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