In today’s briefing:
- Smartkarma Webinar | Significant Shift in Fed Policy Expectations: Implications for ASEAN Markets
- Positioning Watch – AI (NVIDIA) is overshadowing everything else
- India Politics: A Smaller Win for the BJP Not Necessarily a Bad Thing
- The Week At A Glance: Another hawkish EUR-flation surprise?
- Great Game – Israel and China testing boundaries
- CX Daily: China’s Pension Plan Faces Prospect for Change or Going Bust
- Car Crash | May 28, 2024
- UK Politics: Pre-Election ‘Snapshots’
- Active Asia Ex-Japan Funds: Top-Down Country Insights
Smartkarma Webinar | Significant Shift in Fed Policy Expectations: Implications for ASEAN Markets
- In the next installment of our Webinar series, in collaboration with ASEAN Exchanges, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider Said Desaque.
- Courtesy of strong economic data, financial markets have significantly revised their expectations for Fed policy in 2024.
- The June FOMC meeting is pivotal, with upcoming information potentially shaping forward guidance for the next year.
- Ending quantitative tightening (QT) could have several implications for ASEAN credit markets, such as benefiting economies with substantial USD-denominated corporate borrowing.
Join us as Said Desaque shares his expert analysis on these developments and what they mean for the future of ASEAN financial markets.
The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 5 June 2024, 17:30 SGT/HKT.
Said Desaque is a professional economist with over 35 years of experience covering the global economy, with significant expertise in the US, China, Japan and emerging markets. He worked with US investment banks for over 25 years covering institutional investors in Europe, Middle East, Far East and Australia. Covers financial markets on a multi asset basis. Said has been an independent economist covering the global economy and financial markets for over 10 years since founding DeSaque Macro Research in London.
Positioning Watch – AI (NVIDIA) is overshadowing everything else
- Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.
- Equities have been dragged higher over the past week after NVIDIA published yet another earnings surprise, and markets were funnily enough buying into other Tech equities on the back of NVIDIAs earnings – strengthening the argument as to why AI / NVIDIA has proven to be a major driver in the equity space.
- Every single time NVIDIA or other GPU companies’ earnings surprise positively, we are witnessing a subsequent boom in the amount of AI related news, which are rapidly increasing at the moment.
India Politics: A Smaller Win for the BJP Not Necessarily a Bad Thing
- Despite pre-election polls suggesting a landslide win for Modi’s party, lower turnout and a reliance on hard-handed campaign tactics suggest that the election is no walk in the park.
- With the BJP’s core vote maxed out in 2019, expanding its parliamentary majority will require harder-to-pick fruits beyond its traditional base.
- While more-ambitious parts of the economic reform agenda may be set back, improved checks and balances in India’s political system is by no means a negative.
The Week At A Glance: Another hawkish EUR-flation surprise?
- Welcome to our weekly overview of the most important key figure releases and how to trade them.
- We generally see a week of bad inflation news ahead of us and it will likely continue to emphasize recent trends in EUR (and GBP rates), also relative to USD rates.
- EUR/USD (and GBP/USD) could continue to see support from relative rates as a consequence.
Great Game – Israel and China testing boundaries
- Welcome to this week’s Great Game after an eventful week in Geopolitics.
- This week we cover four topics:Israel-Egypt border stand-off. Mexican election. Chinese drills around Taiwan.
- Israel-Egypt border stand-off situation: An Egyptian soldier was killed after at minor exchange of fire with Israeli troops near the Gaza-Egypt border on Monday.
CX Daily: China’s Pension Plan Faces Prospect for Change or Going Bust
- Pension / Cover Story: China’s pension plan faces prospect for change or going bust
- Exports /China facing container shortage as exporters rush to beat looming U.S. tariffs
- Personnel /Chinese foreign ministry promotes long-time spokesperson to vice minister
Car Crash | May 28, 2024
- Globalisation is unravelling rapidly The timing of the US tariff announcement was clearly political and aimed at voters and producers rather than consumers.
- However, it marks an important shift in unravelling the world of Globalisation, as well as threatening EU unity and exposing the inherent contradictions in believing net zero is a job creating policy.
- The timing of the announcement last week that the US would impose tariffs of 100% on Chinese exports of EVs, as well as varying % tariffs on steel, batteries, solar cells, and critical minerals was obviously political, as many of the key swing states in the upcoming US Election are facing intense competition from China and politicians need to promise jobs in order to get elected.
UK Politics: Pre-Election ‘Snapshots’
- Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s decision to call a general election earlier than expected has some economic and political rationale.
- Despite this, it is likely that Sunak’s Conservative Party will face a significant loss.
- The Labour Party, still affected by the events of 1992, is expected to be the main beneficiary of this defeat.
Active Asia Ex-Japan Funds: Top-Down Country Insights
- South Korean Pivot: Asia Ex-Japan investors move to overweight South Korea for the first time in our history, SK Hynix and Kia Corp among the beneficiaries.
- India Fatigue: Despite India’s outperformance and rising fund weights, managers show caution, with nearly 2/3rds of funds underweight the benchmark.
- China All-Time Lows: China & HK fund weights have dropped significantly from 53.5% in 2020 to 34.8% today, just above a 13-year low, signaling a critical juncture for re-evaluation.
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