Daily BriefsMacro

Daily Brief Macro: Smartkarma Webinar | ASEAN IPO Capital Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism Amid Economic Uncertainties and more

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Webinar | ASEAN IPO Capital Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism Amid Economic Uncertainties
  • Energy Cable: China is killing the commodity super cycle
  • Non-Consensus View: China to De-Centralise
  • China Is One Step Closer to Its ‘Event Horizon” in the Property Market
  • China Economics: Not Much Progress in Cyclical Recovery
  • Dip in Oil Rigs Drives US Rig Count Down
  • CX Daily: Chinese Gamble With Their Lives in the Philippines Amid Waves of Kidnappings
  • EA Inflation is Awkwardly Strong
  • Swedish Riksbank Delivers 25bps Cut and More to Come
  • FSS Provides Guidelines for Internal Controls and Stock Balance Management System for Short Selling


Smartkarma Webinar | ASEAN IPO Capital Market Outlook: Cautious Optimism Amid Economic Uncertainties

By Smartkarma Research

In the next installment of our Webinar series, in collaboration with ASEAN Exchanges, we go live with Smartkarma Insight Provider Shifara Samsudeen

  • The Initial Public Offering (IPO) market in the ASEAN region has experienced significant transformations over the past five years.
  • 2023 was a year of uncertainty due to global supply chain disruptions, rising inflation, and geopolitical tensions, prompting investors to exercise caution.
  • As the region continues to navigate economic uncertainties and geopolitical challenges, the overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with potential for growth driven by strategic
    reforms and sector-specific opportunities.

Join us as Shifara Samsudeen shares her expert analysis on these developments, and what they mean for the future of the ASEAN region’s IPO markets.

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 11 September 2024, 17:30 SGT/HKT.

Shifara Samsudeen has over fifteen years of experience in investment research, with exposure to the tech and telecom sectors. She has extensive knowledge in performing industry deep dives and KPI identification along with advanced client services. Prior to joining LightStream Research, Shifara was an Assistant Director at Acuity Knowledge Partners (previously Moody’s Analytics Knowledge Services). Shifara is an Associate Member of CIMA – UK.


Energy Cable: China is killing the commodity super cycle

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Take aways: Low margins and high stock levels mean that China will export its excess metal capacity. Other commodities like crude and its derivatives look weak as well. Gold only strong performing commodity in China due to domestic economic weakness .
  • Welcome to this week’s energy cable with a focus on the economic troubles in China and its impact on commodity prices.
  • This week’s piece will have a lot of charts, therefore we’ll keep the text short.

Non-Consensus View: China to De-Centralise

By Alex Ng

  • We believe, contrary to the increasing view of centralising trend, China is possible to undergo a series of decentralisation, revitalising the competition spirit of provinces and counties.
  • It is questionable whether President Xi is capable of fine-governing each local provinces, no matter how talented he is, as China is a big country.
  • Improvement in technology is enabling the autocratic government to micro-manage the country, but if there is only one top guy to decide on everything, such system is bound to collapse.

China Is One Step Closer to Its ‘Event Horizon” in the Property Market

By Rikki Malik

  • The latest policy proposal is one step closer but still incremental
  • Incremental steps taken so far have been ineffective in the short-term
  • The ideal solution would be full intervention by the Central Government

China Economics: Not Much Progress in Cyclical Recovery

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Economic readings show that China’s economy is still mired in a malaise. Households remain defensive by doubling down on savings, which feeds into muted investment and hiring by firms. 
  • With a property market rebound not forthcoming, the negative wealth effects are keeping economic agents downbeat. 
  • The failure of its strategy of repeated small stimulus doses has not spurred Beijing into more decisive action. Without that, the economy could fall into a deflationary trap.

Dip in Oil Rigs Drives US Rig Count Down

By Suhas Reddy

  • US oil and gas rig count fell by two to 586 for the week ending 16/Aug, indicating a decline for the second time in three weeks.
  • US oil rig count fell by two to 483, after rising by three the previous week. Gas rigs increased by one to 98, after declining for three straight weeks.
  • For the week ending 09/Aug, US crude oil production fell back to 13.3m bpd, after hitting its record high of 13.4m bpd the week prior.  

CX Daily: Chinese Gamble With Their Lives in the Philippines Amid Waves of Kidnappings

By Caixin Global

  • Kidnappings / Cover Story: Chinese gamble with their lives in the Philippines amid waves of kidnappings 
  • Marriage /: China looks to make tying the knot easier as marriage rate continues decade-long decline

  • Bonds /: Investors are warming to panda bonds, Deutsche Bank executive says


EA Inflation is Awkwardly Strong

By Phil Rush

  • The final EA inflation print broadly confirmed the flash release’s surprise rise to 2.58% in July, with services only slowing to 4%. Median rates are pushing above 2% again.
  • Annual underlying inflation measures are still slowing, but the extent is being revised higher, and so are headline consensus forecast profiles.
  • Renewed slowing over the next two months, while medium-term projections are stable, should allow the ECB to cut in September. Resilience should urge cautious restraint.

Swedish Riksbank Delivers 25bps Cut and More to Come

By Alex Ng

  • Riksbank appear more concerned about a weak economy, which is causing forward guidance of a faster pace of easing after Aug 20 25bps cut to 3.50%.  
  • We look for 25bps cuts at the September and December meetings and a 25bps cut is possible in the November if inflation remains under control and real sector further disappoints
  • The statement indicated that the Riksbank would be looking to cut a further two to three times in 2024, which is more dovish than expected.

FSS Provides Guidelines for Internal Controls and Stock Balance Management System for Short Selling

By Douglas Kim

  • On 20 August, the FSS provided guidelines for the internal control and stock balance management system for institutional investors that plan to engage in short selling in Korea.
  • The time frame to complete the internal control and stock balance management system is to complete them by end of this year.
  • The time frame to complete the internal control and stock balance management system is end of this year.

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