In today’s briefing:
- Singapore’s Cyclical Outlook Masks Structural Woes
- CX Daily: China’s Consumers Are Flush With Cash, So Why Does the Recovery Have the Wobbles?
- Indonesia’s Ore Export Bans: A One-Trick Pony?
- The State of the US Labor Market – The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
Singapore’s Cyclical Outlook Masks Structural Woes
- Singapore’s cyclical downsides are a worry but are ultimately manageable, with business confidence, labour markets, and regional spillovers helping to offset the slowdown.
- Less positive is the structural issue of low productivity growth. A contraction in investments is a sign of further troubles given Singapore’s reliance on capital formation.
- Structurally-Entrenched inflation is also threatening to erode economic competitiveness. Stubborn core inflation is a tell-tale sign of unfavourable wage-price dynamics.
CX Daily: China’s Consumers Are Flush With Cash, So Why Does the Recovery Have the Wobbles?
- Economy /Cover Story: China’s consumers are flush with cash, so why does the recovery have the wobbles?
- Ukraine-Russia /: Russia, Ukraine open to peace talks but obstacles remain, China’s peace envoy says
- Debt collection /: Chinese debt collector suspends business after police raids
Indonesia’s Ore Export Bans: A One-Trick Pony?
- Jakarta’s claims of the nickel export ban’s success should be taken with some skepticism, given that the increased activity was induced by massive policy largesse and regulatory favours.
- Contrary to its aspirations, “downstreaming” increases Indonesia’s exposure to commodity risks, especially if global moves to reduce nickel use in batteries succeed.
- Imposing a similar restriction on bauxite and other minerals may not yield similar results, given the lack of leverage Indonesia has in those respective markets.
The State of the US Labor Market – The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
- The good: payrolls, ADP, initial jobless claims, job opening, and wage growth.
- The Bad: ISM Services Employment, Permanent Job Losers, and Quits Rate
- The Ugly: Average Weekly Hours, Continuing Jobless Claims, the Fed Tightening Cycle
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