In today’s briefing:
- Singapore: Growth Outlook Remains Bright For 2022
- Characteristics of the Best Short Candidates
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Astra & UNTR Are Cheap, Indonesian Autos, and SCB X
- Commodity Prices Set To Fall Back to Earth After Giddy 1H22
- India Presidential Elections: Political Re-Alignments Ahead of the 2024 Election Cycle
Singapore: Growth Outlook Remains Bright For 2022
- Intensifying inflationary pressures led the MAS to tighten policy in an unexpected off-cycle meeting last week. Upside risks to inflation persist and more tightening is likely in October.
- Property prices are moving up too but rising mortgage rates will help cool the sector and the government can increase land supply to temper real estate prices.
- Singapore’s multiple growth drivers lend resilience to its outlook. But as external headwinds have grown, we have downgraded our 2022 GDP growth forecast from 4.4% to 4.0%.
Characteristics of the Best Short Candidates
- Factor behavior tends to persist for effective shorts as well as for effective longs.
- Below, we describe the characteristics of the best shorts over the past 30 days.
- We compare factors/characteristics against our Two Rivers Universe as a benchmark.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Astra & UNTR Are Cheap, Indonesian Autos, and SCB X
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
- The past week saw insights on Astra International & United Tractors (UNTR IJ), Adi Sarana Armada, SCB X (SCB TB) and Genting Singapore (GENS SP).
- There were also insights on SCG Packaging,Thanachart Capital (TCAP TB), Tisco Financial Group (TISCO TB), and MK Restaurants Group (M TB) in Thailand.
Commodity Prices Set To Fall Back to Earth After Giddy 1H22
- Thermal coal benefitted from the gas shortages in Europe, while crude palm oil (CPO)’s upswing was induced by shortages of sunflower oil amid port closures in the black sea region.
- Following a blockbuster semester, these conditions look set to normalise in the second half of the year, as the global economic growth comes under the spotlight.
- Base metal’s decline is likely to be more pronounced in light of the economic moderation. Food and energy prices, on the other hand, will remain sticky.
India Presidential Elections: Political Re-Alignments Ahead of the 2024 Election Cycle
- Vote counting for the Presidential elections will start on 21 Jul 22, and the new elected President will be sworn in on 25 Jul 22.
- The BJP has put forth Draupadi Murmu as its candidate. She is a Santhal from the marginalised Adivasi tribal community.
- Given the BJP’s dominance across state legislatures and the national parliament, however, Murmu is expected to coast to victory.
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