In today’s briefing:
- Singapore Budget 2023: More of the Same?
- Singapore Budget 2023: Macroeconomic Implications
- CX Daily: Hiring of ICBC Veteran Looms Over Disappearance of China Renaissance Founder
- Rebound Renews Policy Pressure
Singapore Budget 2023: More of the Same?
- Budget 2023 signalled continued fiscal conservatism that risks increasing public savings beyond what is economically efficient. More money can be spent on pursuing long-term goals.
- The step up in social assistance schemes was welcome, but there is considerable latitude for more support for Singaporeans to face looming economic and social challenges.
- Goodies in Budget 2023 can be justified by prevailing macroeconomic conditions and the government’s policy goals, so the budget is not sufficiently indicative of an early election.
Singapore Budget 2023: Macroeconomic Implications
- The latest budget continues a contractionary fiscal stance, in line with policy normalization following the massive pandemic-induced expansion in 2020.
- Further monetary tightening is on the cards, given pressures from labour markets and further room for the services sectors to recover.
- Singapore’s growth prospects have improved at the margin, arising from China’s recovery and resilience in advanced economies. Services exports and fixed investments also support domestic activity.
CX Daily: Hiring of ICBC Veteran Looms Over Disappearance of China Renaissance Founder
- Russia-Ukraine /: One year into Russia-Ukraine war and still no end in sight
- Investment banking / In Depth: Hiring of ICBC veteran looms over disappearance of China Renaissance founder
- IPOs /: China completes rollout of new IPO system with inclusion of main boards in Shanghai, Shenzhen
Rebound Renews Policy Pressure
- The Flash PMIs rebounded further away from recessionary levels in Feb-23. The resilient output is a tailwind to employment, excess inflation, and above-neutral rates.
- Falling forward rates have proved premature, but their partial reversal has not yet broken bullish spirits. Expectations are too high, especially in the UK.
- Low official inflation forecasts are conditional on conquering the inflation issue. More aggressive steps are needed to avoid defeat and its persistently high pressures.
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