In today’s briefing:
- Sentiment Nugget: What are Central Banks Actually Telling Us?
- CX Daily: China Concludes Sixth Top Financial Meeting to Tackle New Challenges
- EIA Watch: Oil demand up, Fuel demand down..
- EM by EM #28 The Truth Hidden in Plain Sight
- Powell Beats UGLY ISM in Two Sentences – Stocks Fly
- BoE: Roasting in Persistent Inflation
Sentiment Nugget: What are Central Banks Actually Telling Us?
- At this point in the policy path, our Central Bank Sentiment trackers are showing some meaningful signs of life – not of all it totally anticipated.
- Here we highlight some key observations made over the last month around what Central Bank language is actually telling us from a quantitative point of view.
- We regularly track and update our measure of positivity/negativity of Bank language contained in statements, outlooks and speeches on a scale of -1 to +1.
CX Daily: China Concludes Sixth Top Financial Meeting to Tackle New Challenges
- Financial meeting / Caixin Explains: China concludes sixth top financial meeting to tackle new challenges
Personnel /: China’s wave of ministry-level leadership shakeups rolls on in October
PE /: Communist Party cadres told to steer clear of private equity
EIA Watch: Oil demand up, Fuel demand down..
- Welcome to our weekly EIA Watch where we use our sophisticated models to filter noise from actual trends in the EIA demand data for Energy products.
- Since a week ago, Oil has rebounded in the non-adjusted implied demand while transportation fuel demand weakness is seen across Gasoline and especially Diesel.
- We continue to find the Gasoline demand out of whack with reality, while the Oil demand looks to be closer to the actual demand.
EM by EM #28 The Truth Hidden in Plain Sight
- Key Points: The recent UST rally may offer relief to risk assets, and the market appears well-positioned for a bear market rally.
- Our perspective remains unchanged: we believe the underlying economy is weaker than what current market sentiment reflects.
- Persistent concerns surround China’s economic challenges, casting doubt on the sufficiency of the stimulus package, and financial fragility remains unresolved.
Powell Beats UGLY ISM in Two Sentences – Stocks Fly
- Adding the word FINANCIAL to the FOMC statement confirms that Powell & Co. are putting more emphasis on the recent rise in (long-term) interest rates in the Fed’s decision-making.
- Powell overshadowed incoming macro data, revealing that the ISM Manufacturing Index fell sharply to 46.7 in October, ending its already tepid recovery.
- Based on the historical relationship between the ISM Manufacturing Index and year-over-year returns on the S&P 500 Index, the S&P 500 Index should decline 17% to around 3,500!
BoE: Roasting in Persistent Inflation
- The BoE held its policy rate at 5.25%, in line with the consensus, with most members still sounding hawkish and warning of a possible rise yet not changing their votes.
- Inflation persistence was deemed not to have changed despite the minutes noting an assumption that explicitly raised it and a substantial rise in the inflation forecast.
- A failure to hike encourages excessive wage settlements, which are rebounding. Second-round effects may not push policy up but should keep it there even longer.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
