In today’s briefing:
- Rubber Board Says Q1 FY25 Production Near Stable But ATMA Disputes
- The Drill: Geopolitical risk premium in crude now almost gone
- UK Inflation Hits Its Bouncy Bottom
- Indonesia: Policy Rate Held At 6.00% (consensus 6.0%) in Oct-24
- Thailand: 25bp Rate Cut To 2.25% (consensus 2.5%) in Oct-24
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: CEO Dialogue & IMF Article IV
- CX Daily: China Forestry’s Fall Under Corruption Cloud Reveals Weakness in State-Owned System
- CX Daily: Chinese AI-App Makers Look Overseas for Their Big Break
Rubber Board Says Q1 FY25 Production Near Stable But ATMA Disputes
- Consumption declines by .3% to 356,000 tons in Q1 FY 25
- ATMA says April-Sept 2024 production 37% lower year on year
- ATMA asks Rubber Board to expedite data publishing
The Drill: Geopolitical risk premium in crude now almost gone
- The fiscal briefings from China last weekend were exactly what we feared and have been warning about—a big nothing burger.
- China keeps applying supply-side measures to a demand-driven problem, which is unlikely to succeed.
- What China really needs is a forced increase in demand across the system, but instead, they’re focused on trying to incentivize demand for assets or reshuffle credit profiles.
UK Inflation Hits Its Bouncy Bottom
- Surprisingly soft UK inflation data extended across the headline and conventional core metrics, partly because of substantial payback in airfares after August’s surge.
- Only a slight unwind in October and ambiguous historical precedents for November mean much of this downside persists. However, other underlying signals were resilient.
- The BoE can focus on this downside news and cut in November. Ultimately, signals for the underlying pressures in the cyclically tight UK economy should urge an early pause.
Indonesia: Policy Rate Held At 6.00% (consensus 6.0%) in Oct-24
- Bank Indonesia kept the BI-Rate at 6.00%, aligning with market expectations, focusing on inflation control within the 2.5% ±1% target and maintaining Rupiah stability amid global uncertainties.
- The central bank’s cautious stance reflects concerns about geopolitical risks and global market volatility, while future rate decisions will hinge on inflation trends, exchange rate stability, and economic growth prospects.
- Ongoing policy measures aim to reinforce external stability with strategic currency interventions and supportive macroprudential policies to bolster domestic growth drivers.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
Thailand: 25bp Rate Cut To 2.25% (consensus 2.5%) in Oct-24
- The Bank of Thailand’s unexpected 25bp rate cut to 2.25% signals a dovish shift to support debt servicing, contrary to the consensus of no change.
- Future policy will hinge on inflation developments, particularly the gradual rise towards the target range, plus sectoral economic growth disparities.
- Credit conditions, debt deleveraging, and global monetary trends will influence the central bank’s rate trajectory.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: CEO Dialogue & IMF Article IV
- After Meeting with U.S. Investors, the Federal Government Announces Investments Exceeding $20 Billion by 2025.
- On October 15, a meeting was held between the Mexican government and 240 senior executives from the United States and Mexico, aimed at strengthening investor confidence.
- The Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, highlighted during this dialogue that the ongoing legal reforms are focused on strengthening the rule of law and encouraging investment.
CX Daily: China Forestry’s Fall Under Corruption Cloud Reveals Weakness in State-Owned System
- SOE / Cover Story: China Forestry’s fall under corruption cloud reveals weakness in state-owned system
- Stimulus /Exclusive: China may add 6 trillion yuan in treasury bonds to buttress economy
- Fugitive /: Fugitive Chinese tycoon arrested in Bali
CX Daily: Chinese AI-App Makers Look Overseas for Their Big Break
- AI / In Depth: Chinese AI-app makers look overseas for their big break
- Corruption /: Prosecutors will seize fugitive former official’s assets in $400 million embezzlement case
- Payments /: UnionPay teams up with Vietnam partner to simplify QR payments across borders
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