In today’s briefing:
- Regional Economics: A Turning Point in Asian Trade Paves Way for 2024 Recovery
- Energy Cable #45 – The World Needs a Riyadh Accord
- Credit Watch: The Worst Is Behind Us in the SLOOS, But…
- Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – GoTo’s Pivot, Astra’s Sustainability Push, and Mayora Indah
Regional Economics: A Turning Point in Asian Trade Paves Way for 2024 Recovery
- Merchandise trade in Asian markets has been battered by headwinds from tight monetary conditions and growth slowdowns in major economies. This may draw to a close soon.
- Leading indicators such as air and sea cargo are turning a corner, while a robust automobile sector provides a foundation for a broader-based export recovery.
- While our optimism is moderated by contractionary manufacturing conditions, including new export orders, Asian exporters can nonetheless expect a better 2024.
Energy Cable #45 – The World Needs a Riyadh Accord
- Last week we got news that MBS is still keen on pursuing a mega deal with the US that would normalize relations with Israel.
- We envisage a scenario in which Biden for instance gets MBS to open the crude oil taps and in return lets the Saudis get their hands on American military hardware and perhaps more importantly helps push global disinflation and a weaker USD.
- We note that the House has passed substantial sanctions on Iranian Oil just about when traders are going short.
Credit Watch: The Worst Is Behind Us in the SLOOS, But…
- The quarterly SLOOS survey from the Fed was released a bit more than an hour ago and the results resemble the quarterly credit surveys from Japan and Europe released ahead of the US ditto.
- There is a sequential improvement in demand, while fewer banks tighten standards compared to Q3.
- So, is it good news or did the survey rather confirm the credit contraction?
Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?
- Hello everybody and welcome back to our Monday Positioning Watch! We’re here again on this fine Monday, ready to delve into our take on the market’s current temperature based on the latest Positioning and CFTC data.
- Last week, we left off with the possibility of an impending bear market rally.
- If that indeed plays out, it’s the positions with the heaviest shorts that are most at risk and we expect the bleeding is not done.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – GoTo’s Pivot, Astra’s Sustainability Push, and Mayora Indah
- The past week saw insights on GoTo post its pivotal results, Astra International (ASII IJ), Bukalapak (BUKA IJ), Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ), DBS (DBS SP) and Indika Energy (INDY IJ).
- The was also a macro insight on Singapore, a sector insight on Indonesian Banks, and credit insights on Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ) and Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT (PGEO IJ).
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
