In today’s briefing:
- Reasons to Financial Model the Yom Kippur War
- Buy Now, Pain Later
- GEM Fund Q3 Performance. Active Managers Claw It Back After Blockbuster September.
Reasons to Financial Model the Yom Kippur War
- The combination of high energy prices and a determined hawkish Fed is reminscient of the Yom Kippur War and the subsequent Arab Oil Embargo, which crashed the U.S. economy.
- But it may not be as bearish as the 1974 bear market. Investors have to be prepared for a sudden Plaza Accord style policy decision to weaken the USD.
- Another bullish development could see the end of the Russo-Ukraine war, which could spark a rip-your-face-off stock market rally.
Buy Now, Pain Later
- We are constructive on the U.S. stock market for the next few weeks, perhaps as far as to year-end.
- Investors need to be prepared for turbulence once any short-term rally peters out.
- This is a bear market, and don’t mistake a bear market rally for the start of a fresh bull.
GEM Fund Q3 Performance. Active Managers Claw It Back After Blockbuster September.
- Active EM managers outperform by 1.13% in Q3, with 59.3% of funds outperforming the MSCI EM Index
- All Style groups outperformed the benchmark. Value underperformed Growth. Significant outperformance at the Small/Midcap end of the spectrum.
- Key drivers: Underweights in China/Overweights in Brazil, Argentina and Mexico. Cash holdings, overweights in MercadoLibre and underweights in Tencent
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
