In today’s briefing:
- Real Estate: India/China Rotation Sparks Sector Growth
- Ifo Watch: Is Germany flirting with a recession?
- JPY Revisited-Bullish Case
- CX Daily: China’s Used-Car Dealers Face a Bumpy Ride as Price Wars Intensify
- CX Daily: Chinese Brokerages’ Dual Roles in Bond Market Sparks Concern for Conflicts of Interest
- Positioning Watch – No Signs of a Recession in Positioning Data Yet
Real Estate: India/China Rotation Sparks Sector Growth
- Uptick in Real Estate positioning driven by a shift towards Indian Real Estate stocks, which has outweighed reductions in exposure to China & HK Real Estate
- Three names stand out: Phoenix Mills, Macrotech Developers, and DLF Limited, all of which have seen ownership rise to record levels.
- New positions in Indian Real Estate by Allianz and JKC have been offset by closures in Chinese Real Estate by LO Funds and SEB, among others.
Ifo Watch: Is Germany flirting with a recession?
- Take aways: More and more Ifo data suggests that Germany is heading into a recession. Fears of a wage-price spiral in Germany are overstated by German hawks.
- Service price expectations look to settle above pre pandemic trends Remember to look at hard data to get the full picture. Following the full release of the monthly Ifo figures, let’s examine the growth and inflation prospects in Germany as we head into autumn.
- Increasingly, Ifo data hints that a recession may be imminent in Germany, with both growth and inflation expected to slow.
JPY Revisited-Bullish Case
- From our last piece in early Aug 2024, Japanese Yen, we believe Yen will recover to 110 level as US Treasury Yields move lower.
- Compared to our last analysis, further JPY interest rate hike is plausible, or at least on the table
- Japan 10 Year Government Bond Interest Rate is at 0.92%, compared to 0.90% the previous market day and 0.65% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 2.08%.
CX Daily: China’s Used-Car Dealers Face a Bumpy Ride as Price Wars Intensify
- Used cars / In Depth: China’s used-car dealers face a bumpy ride as price wars intensify
- Housing /: China pilots government-funded housing renovation system in 22 cities
- Banks /: Standard Chartered names new China CEO
CX Daily: Chinese Brokerages’ Dual Roles in Bond Market Sparks Concern for Conflicts of Interest
- Bonds / Cover Story: Chinese brokerages’ dual roles in bond market sparks concern for conflicts of interest that raises systemic risk
- Internet /: New digital ID system is optional, not mandatory, ministry researcher says
- Air crash /: Two children among five Chinese nationals killed in Thai plane crash
Positioning Watch – No Signs of a Recession in Positioning Data Yet
- Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.
- Markets have found their way back to pre-NFP levels as the storm seems to have calmed in equity markets.
- Meanwhile, fixed income markets are focused on four rate cuts, despite many taking the NFP revisions last week too seriously, likely underestimating the impact of immigration on payroll data.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
