In today’s briefing:
- Positioning Watch – Everything you need to know about Fixed Income positioning before we enter 2025
- T.R.U.M.P | Dec 19, 2024
- [ETP 2024/51] Fed’s Hawkish Tone Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Soars on Rising LNG Exports
- India’s Tire Exports Surge Amid R&D, Manufacturing Boost
- Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 20 Dec 2024
- BoE Doves Frame Cut For February
- Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Dec-24
- CX Daily: How Shift to EVs Risks Sidelining Auto Parts Giants
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 2h-Nov (Forecast)
- Sweden: 25bp Rate Cut to 2.5% (Consensus 2.5%) in Dec-24
Positioning Watch – Everything you need to know about Fixed Income positioning before we enter 2025
- Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning update – this week with a strong focus on the moves we are seeing in Fixed Income and forward-pricing at the moment and the subsequent positioning as we head into 2025.
- Markets continue to lean bearish on the Eurozone while upbeat on the US in equity terms, and likely for good reasons as macro data hasn’t given any good arguments as to why one should be upbeat on the Eurozone, and the signs we are getting on European growth in our nowcasts have yet to show up in actual releases – for now, it’s mainly the less China sensitive countries like Spain, Portugal and Greece that are performing macro-wise while Germany, France and Italy suffer.
- GDP growth is surprisingly strong in the first 3 whilst very weak in the latter 3, and given the latter’s weighting in European equity indices, it makes sense why we are seeing hedge funds being long consumer staples, health care and other defensives while scaling down bets on cyclical equities.
T.R.U.M.P | Dec 19, 2024
- According to Webster the word of the year is Polarization.
- Oxford have Brain Rot and Cambridge have Manifest. Collins have Brat, which was apparently ‘made famous by a Chari XCX album’ (me neither).
- Personally, just as Cozzy Livs (cost of living) was my favourite in 2023, this year really deserves to be ‘Word Salad’, although without Kamala it is unlikely to reappear anywhere near as much.
[ETP 2024/51] Fed’s Hawkish Tone Drags WTI Prices, Henry Hub Soars on Rising LNG Exports
- For the week ending 13/Dec, US crude inventories fell by 0.9m barrels, missing forecasts. Gasoline stocks rose more than anticipated, while distillate inventories declined more than expected.
- US natural gas inventories fell by 125 Bcf for the week ending 13/Dec, beating analyst expectations of a 123 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 3.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.
- Major analysts lowered their 12-month PTs on Exxon, SLB, Halliburton, and Occidental. Also, Barclays downgraded its rating on Halliburton to Equalweight from Overweight.
India’s Tire Exports Surge Amid R&D, Manufacturing Boost
- FY 2024-25 H1 witnesses 12% YoY growth in tire exports value
- Motorcycle tire exports volume up by 37%; Columbia largest importer
- Bridgestone to invest US$85 million for India expansion
Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 20 Dec 2024
- US and China treasury yields highlight inflation control challenges, with the Fed’s rate cut fueling market uncertainty.
- Asia’s mixed monetary decisions saw Japan hold rates, while the Philippines’ cuts worsened currency pressures.
- China’s retail sales remain resilient despite lower growth expectations, contrasting with declining real sales in the US.
BoE Doves Frame Cut For February
- The BoE matched widespread expectations again by holding the Bank rate at 4.75%, although the three dissenters exceeded the two we expected (consensus was for one).
- Surprisingly high wage growth is reinforcing the gradualist urge of most members. Softer labour market conditions will likely be used to justify a February rate cut.
- We maintain our call for BoE cuts in February and May before an extended pause that may end with rate hikes to remove accidental stimulus amid high neutral rates.
Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Dec-24
- The Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4.5%, aligning with the consensus, and signalled potential easing from March 2025, contingent on continued economic moderation.
- Inflation has slowed significantly but remains above target, constrained by high wage growth and business costs; domestic activity has exceeded expectations, while unemployment remains stable.
- The outlook is marked by uncertainty, with risks from global trade policy and domestic inflationary pressures influencing the trajectory of future rate adjustments.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
CX Daily: How Shift to EVs Risks Sidelining Auto Parts Giants
- EVs / In Depth: How shift to EVs risks sidelining auto parts giants
- Toy /In Depth: China’s trendy toy makers march into Southeast Asia
- Delivery /China’s food delivery giants to introduce mandatory rest breaks for riders
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 2h-Nov (Forecast)
- We expect inflation for the first fortnight of December to stand at 0.38% bw, given the rebound in prices following “El Buen Fin” discount season.
- This fortnight inflation would be in line with the increase of 0.38% bw that is typical observed in this period.
- Our forecast is explained by the 0.45% bw increase in core inflation (typically 0.44% bw in the period).
Sweden: 25bp Rate Cut to 2.5% (Consensus 2.5%) in Dec-24
- The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2.5%, meeting consensus expectations and reflecting a total reduction of 1.5 percentage points since May 2024 to support weak economic activity and stabilise inflation near the target.
- Forward guidance indicates the potential for another rate cut in H1 2025, contingent on stable inflation and growth projections, emphasising evaluating the lagged effects of earlier policy adjustments.
- External uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and trade policy ambiguities, alongside domestic risks, such as the krona’s exchange rate and fragile recovery momentum, will influence future monetary policy decisions.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
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