In today’s briefing:
- Portfolio Watch – Have markets traded the cyclical rebound in advance?
- US CPI Inflation 3.09% y-o-y (consensus 2.9%) in Jan-24
- Energy Cable: All the upside left in Henry Hub
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – BBNI’s Aspirations, Oceanagold IPO, and Thailand’s Recovery
- A Sick Man by Choice!
- UK Politics: The Right Bites
- Switzerland CPI Inflation 1.3% y-o-y (consensus 1.7%) in Jan-24
- Saudi CPI Inflation 1.6% y-o-y (consensus 1.6%) in Jan-24
- Argentina CPI Inflation 20.6% m-o-m (consensus 21.0%) in Jan-24
- Which Commodity Trades “Big Money” currently favors // USDA Outlook 24-25 Highlights
Portfolio Watch – Have markets traded the cyclical rebound in advance?
- Welcome to our weekly portfolio watch, which today will be all about the (potential) upcoming rebound in the cyclical momentum.
- As always we share our trade thoughts and ideas and provide you with our current allocation.
- Yesterday’s PPI came in hot as we expected (0.6% MoM in core PPI vs 0.1% expected), which serves as an early sign of a reacceleration in inflationary pressures, which have been our base case since the continuation of the tensions in the Red Sea: It looks like the increase in US freight rates has started to impact producer prices.
US CPI Inflation 3.09% y-o-y (consensus 2.9%) in Jan-24
- The US CPI inflation rate for January 2024 exceeded expectations, slowing down to 3.09% y-o-y, marking the lowest growth since June 2023.
- The US Core CPI inflation rate stayed at 3.9% y-o-y.
- This rate was 0.2pp above consensus expectations, further supporting the hawkish surprise.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
Energy Cable: All the upside left in Henry Hub
- Greetings from a rainy and cold Copenhagen.
- Since we haven’t talked about natural gas for a while we will start out here before turning to crude.
- Last week saw Henry Hub making lows last seen during the first wave of Covid in the spring of 2020.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – BBNI’s Aspirations, Oceanagold IPO, and Thailand’s Recovery
- The past week saw insights on Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ), Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ), OceanaGold Philippines, Sam Holdings IPO, and the most SET50 Index rebalance.
- There were also macro insights on Thailand with some optimism, Vietnam as it starts to recover, Malaysia with lingering concerns, and the Philippines, as the BSP keeps rates on hold.
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.
A Sick Man by Choice!
- Despite its reputation as a global industrial giant, Germany’s industrial production has been on a seven-year decline.
- Germany’s policies are the root of its industrial woes, with the energy crisis as a prime example.
- Last year, a third of German industrial firms preferred to invest abroad rather than domestically.
UK Politics: The Right Bites
- Reform UK performed strongly in the recent by-elections.
- The upcoming Rochdale by-election on 29th February is expected to increase pressure on Rishi Sunak.
- There is an internal push within Sunak’s party for him to either adopt more right-wing policies or resign.
Switzerland CPI Inflation 1.3% y-o-y (consensus 1.7%) in Jan-24
- Switzerland’s CPI inflation rate for January 2024 was 1.3% year-on-year, significantly lower than the predicted 1.7%.
- The CPI inflation rate for January 2024 was notably less than the consensus forecast.
- This rate is 0.68 percentage points below the one-year average.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
Saudi CPI Inflation 1.6% y-o-y (consensus 1.6%) in Jan-24
- Saudi CPI inflation rose to 1.6% year-on-year in January 2024, the highest growth since November 2023.
- On a month-on-month basis, CPI inflation increased by 0.3% in January 2024.
- This indicates a slight acceleration in price levels.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
Argentina CPI Inflation 20.6% m-o-m (consensus 21.0%) in Jan-24
- Argentina’s CPI inflation in January 2024 increased by 20.6% month-on-month, slightly below the consensus estimate of 21.0%.
- The current inflation rate is slower than the previous month.
- Despite being slower, the current rate is significantly higher than the one-year average, indicating sustained inflationary pressures.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
Which Commodity Trades “Big Money” currently favors // USDA Outlook 24-25 Highlights
In his presentation Thursday morning at the Agricultural Outlook Forum USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer said input prices are not falling with commodity prices, squeezing margins.
“When commodity prices normalize and readjust, those input prices tend to be sticky, which shrinks producer margins,” Meyer says. “…It was maybe easier to make a little bit of money in ’22, ’23.
It’s going to be a little bit tougher in the next crop year.”
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