In today’s briefing:
- Part Four: The Sharply Slowing UK Economy
- China Property: 2023 In Word Frequency Charts
- Part Three: Australian Dollar and AGB Yields
Part Four: The Sharply Slowing UK Economy
- The UK economy has been facing a series of challenges in recent weeks.
- Economic data has been disappointing, with weak unemployment, earnings, GDP, industrial production, manufacturing, services, and trade balance.
- As I write this report, 10-year UK government bond yields have fallen by 20 basis points (bps) in the past two days.
China Property: 2023 In Word Frequency Charts
- We gauge the intensity of certain topics and narratives concerning China’s property sector via the analysis of the mainstream Chinese media headlines.
- Overall, 2023 was marked by the initial market recovery ‘talk’ which then faded, followed by the spike in policy support for the sector, though less so towards the year-end.
- Certain topics have jumped in prominence in H2 on policy directives: affordable housing and renovating urban villages.
Part Three: Australian Dollar and AGB Yields
- The Aussie Dollar is acting as a delta one to the Chinese Economic data, as the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) remains committed to maintaining the stability of the CNY.
- The AUDJPY has formed an intermediate double-top pattern.
- While it is likely to rebound, it could also be influenced by the difference in export growth between ROW with China and Japan.
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